CLLFF (Collins Foods) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.06% (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


CLLFF Collins Foods Ltd CLLFF
82 GF Score
Price $6.90
GF Value $8.37
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is Collins Foods Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Collins Foods CLLFF 82 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates CLLFF with a GF Score™ of 82/100 and a GF Value™ of $8.37. The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Collins Foods's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Collins Foods  (OTCPK:CLLFF) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Collins Foods Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


CLLFF vs MCD, SBUX, CMG: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Restaurants subindustry, Collins Foods's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Collins Foods Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Restaurants Industry

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Collins Foods's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Collins Foods's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


CLLFF
82GF Score
Collins Foods Ltd CLLFF
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Collins Foods Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.48

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.06%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% mean?
Collins Foods (CLLFF) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is Collins Foods' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Collins Foods' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Overall, Collins Foods has a GF Score™ of 82/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Collins Foods' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to MCD and SBUX?
Collins Foods' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% can be compared against companies in the Restaurants industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Restaurants company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Restaurants industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Collins Foods's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Collins Foods stock overvalued right now?
Collins Foods (CLLFF) has a current Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06%. The stock's GF Value™ is $8.37, compared to a current price of $6.90 — trading 17.6% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Collins Foods' overall GF Score™ is 82/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Collins Foods (CLLFF), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Collins Foods (CLLFF) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Collins Foods stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $6.90 is trading 17.6% below its estimated GF Value™ of $8.37.

Key valuation signals for CLLFF:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.06%
  • GF Value™: $8.37 vs. price of $6.90 (17.6% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 82/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the CLLFF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Collins Foods Business Description

Other Exchanges CKF:Australia
Address 485 Kingsford Smith Drive, Level 3, KSD1, Hamilton, QLD, AUS, 4007
Collins Foods is an operator of quick service restaurants, or QSRs. It franchises restaurant brands from US-listed Yum Brands, including KFC in Australia, Germany, and the Netherlands. Revenue and earnings are largely generated in Australia, where Collins is the largest KFC franchisee. Earnings growth is underpinned by its store network expansion, both new restaurants and acquisitions of existing sites. Competitive pricing is key to maintaining share in the QSR market, and the company has generally increased at or below consumer price index growth.
82GF Score

Get the complete analysis for CLLFF

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$6.90
Price
$8.37
GF Value