What is Citi Trends Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Citi Trends's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Citi Trends's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Apparel Retail subindustry, Citi Trends's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Citi Trends's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Citi Trends's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Citi Trends's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Citi Trends Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -7.24 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.07% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Citi Trends (Citi Trends) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
104 Coleman Boulevard, Savannah, GA, USA, 31408
Citi Trends Inc is a retailer of urban fashion apparel and accessories in the United States. The company offers apparel, including fashion sportswear for men and women, as well as children, such as newborns, infants, toddlers, boys, and girls; accessories comprising handbags, jewelry, footwear, belts, intimate apparel, scrubs, and sleepwear; and functional and decorative home products, as well as beauty products, books, and toys.
Executives
| Fund 1 Investments, Llc |
10 percent owner |
100 CARR 115, UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677 |
| Jonathan Duskin |
director |
MACELLUM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 99 HUDSON STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013 |
| Pleasant Lake Partners Llc |
10 percent owner |
100 CARR 115 UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677 |
| Pleasant Lake Onshore Feeder Fund Lp |
10 percent owner |
100 CARR 115 UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677 |
| Vivek Bhargava |
officer: SVP, Supply Chain Operations |
104 COLEMAN BOULEVARD, SAVANNAH GA 31408 |
| Ivy D Council |
officer: SR VP of HR, Chief Compl Offcr |
C/O CITI TRENDS, INC., 102 FAHM STREET, SAVANNAH GA 31401 |
| David N. Makuen |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O FIVE BELOW, INC., 1818 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2000, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Heather L Plutino |
officer: EVP and CFO |
104 COLEMAN BOULEVARD, SAVANNAH GA 31408 |
| Brian Carney |
director |
5555 DARROW RD, HUDSON OH 44236 |
| Laurens Goff |
director |
C/O CITI TRENDS, INC., 104 COLEMAN BLVD., SAVANNAH GA 31408 |
| Jessica Berkowitz |
officer: SVP, Planning and Allocation |
104 COLEMAN BOULEVARD, SAVANNAH GA 31408 |
| Kenneth Duane Seipel |
director |
26972 BURBANK, FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610 |
| Christina M Francis |
director |
104 COLEMAN BOULEVARD, SAVANNAH GA 31408 |
| Lisa A. Powell |
officer: Chief Merchandising Officer |
C/O CITI TRENDS, INC., 104 COLEMAN BLVD., SAVANNAH GA 31408 |
| Charles J. Hynes |
officer: Senior VP - Supply Chain |
CITI TRENDS, INC., 104 COLEMAN BLVD., SAVANNAH GA 31408 |
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