Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Drax Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Drax Group (OTCPK:DRXGY) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Drax Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
Drax Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Competitor Comparison
For the Utilities - Renewable subindustry, Drax Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Drax Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers Industry
For the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry and Utilities sector, Drax Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Drax Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Drax Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.77
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% mean?
Drax Group (DRXGY) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% as of Jun. 24, 2026.
Is Drax Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Drax Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Overall, Drax Group has a GF Score™ of 63/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Drax Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to competitors?
Drax Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% can be compared against companies in the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Utilities - Independent Power Producers company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Drax Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Drax Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Drax Group (DRXGY) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $14.39, compared to a current price of $22.66 — trading 57.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Drax Group's overall GF Score™ is 63/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Drax Group (DRXGY), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Drax Group (DRXGY) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Drax Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $22.66 is trading 57.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of $14.39.
GuruFocus considers Drax Group to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for DRXGY:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04%
GF Value™: $14.39 vs. price of $22.66 (57.5% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the DRXGY stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Drax Group PLC is a UK-based renewable energy company engaged in renewable power generation, the production of sustainable biomass and the sale of renewable electricity to businesses. It operates a generation portfolio of sustainable biomass, hydro-electric, and pumped hydro storage assets across four sites in England and Scotland. The company also operates a bioenergy supply business with manufacturing facilities in the United States and Canada, producing compressed wood pellets for its own use and for customers in Europe and Asia. Its segments include Pellet Production, Generation, and Customers. The majority of its revenue is generated from the Customers segment which sells renewable electricity to industrial and commercial customers in the United Kingdom.
63GF Score
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