Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Davide Campari-Milano NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Davide Campari-Milano NV (OTCPK:DVCMY) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Davide Campari-Milano NV Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
DVCMY vs BF.B: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries subindustry, Davide Campari-Milano NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Davide Campari-Milano NV Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Beverages - Alcoholic Industry
For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Davide Campari-Milano NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Davide Campari-Milano NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Davide Campari-Milano NV Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.61
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% mean?
Davide Campari-Milano NV (DVCMY) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% as of Jun. 24, 2026.
Is Davide Campari-Milano NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Davide Campari-Milano NV's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. Overall, Davide Campari-Milano NV has a GF Score™ of 77/100 and is considered Significantly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Davide Campari-Milano NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to BF.B?
Davide Campari-Milano NV's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% can be compared against companies in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Beverages - Alcoholic company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Beverages - Alcoholic industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Davide Campari-Milano NV's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Davide Campari-Milano NV stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Davide Campari-Milano NV (DVCMY) is currently considered Significantly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $9.16, compared to a current price of $6.15 — trading 32.9% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. Davide Campari-Milano NV's overall GF Score™ is 77/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Davide Campari-Milano NV (DVCMY), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Davide Campari-Milano NV (DVCMY) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Davide Campari-Milano NV stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $6.15 is trading 32.9% below its estimated GF Value™ of $9.16.
GuruFocus considers Davide Campari-Milano NV to be Significantly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for DVCMY:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.05%
GF Value™: $9.16 vs. price of $6.15 (32.9% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the DVCMY stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Davide Campari-Milano is the Italian-headquartered parent of Campari Group and is the world's leading manufacturer of bitters, with a volume share of around 24% in 2025, according to Euromonitor. The company's liqueur portfolio includes Aperol, Campari, and Grand Marnier. The remainder of the portfolio spans a wide range of categories, including global brands Skyy vodka and Wild Turkey bourbon and niche brands such as Appleton Estate rum, Bulldog gin, and Espolòn tequila. Campari also produces and markets a range of Champagne and sparkling wines. Campari is controlled by Lagfin, a Luxembourg-based holding company, which holds 52% of the share capital and over 60% of the voting rights. The rest of the equity is free floating.
77GF Score
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