EXDW (Exceed World) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 100.00% (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


EXDW Exceed World Inc EXDW
44 GF Score
Price $0.29
GF Value $0.15
! 8 Warning Signs
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What is Exceed World Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Exceed World EXDW 44 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 100.00% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates EXDW with a GF Score™ of 44/100 and a GF Value™ of $0.15. The stock has 8 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Exceed World's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 100.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Exceed World  (OTCPK:EXDW) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Exceed World Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


EXDW vs ASPU, WAFU, AMBO: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Education & Training Services subindustry, Exceed World's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Exceed World Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Education Industry

For the Education industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Exceed World's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Exceed World's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


EXDW
44GF Score
Exceed World Inc EXDW
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Exceed World Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=67.73

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=100.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 100.00% mean?
Exceed World (EXDW) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 100.00% as of Jun. 26, 2026.
Is Exceed World's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Exceed World's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 100.00%. Overall, Exceed World has a GF Score™ of 44/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Exceed World's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to ASPU and WAFU?
Exceed World's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 100.00% can be compared against companies in the Education industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Education company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Education industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Exceed World's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 100.00%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Exceed World stock overvalued right now?
Exceed World (EXDW) has a current Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 100.00%. The stock's GF Value™ is $0.15, compared to a current price of $0.29 — trading 95% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 100.00%. Exceed World's overall GF Score™ is 44/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Exceed World (EXDW), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 100.00% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Exceed World (EXDW) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Exceed World stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $0.29 is trading 95% above its estimated GF Value™ of $0.15.

Key valuation signals for EXDW:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 100.00%
  • GF Value™: $0.15 vs. price of $0.29 (95% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 44/100 with 8 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the EXDW stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Exceed World Business Description

Address 1-23-38-6th Floor, Esakacho, Suita-shi, Osaka, JPN, 564-0063
Exceed World Inc is engaged in the education service business and provides educational services through an internet platform called Force Club. The company is an education service provider in Japan, offering a range of e-learning education programs and supporting services through Force Club. Its e-learning programs, procured from independent third-party software developers, include pre-school learning resources, resources supplementing elementary, junior high, and senior high school curricula, preparation courses for university entrance and professional qualification examinations, and English learning, serving customers from pre-school children to students and adult learners, mainly as supplemental learning resources and self-learning tools.
44GF Score

Get the complete analysis for EXDW

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$0.29
Price
$0.15
GF Value