China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co (FRA:CHK) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02% (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


FRA:CHK China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co Ltd FRA:CHK
90 GF Score
Price €2.35
GF Value €3.27
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co FRA:CHK +1.29% 90 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates FRA:CHK with a GF Score™ of 90/100 and a GF Value™ of €3.27 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co  (FRA:CHK) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

FRA:CHK vs STZ, TAP: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Beverages - Brewers subindustry, China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Beverages - Alcoholic Industry

For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


FRA:CHK
90GF Score
China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co Ltd FRA:CHK
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.34

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co (FRA:CHK) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co has a GF Score™ of 90/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to STZ and TAP?
China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Beverages - Alcoholic company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Beverages - Alcoholic industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co (FRA:CHK) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €3.27, compared to a current price of €2.35 — trading 28.1% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co's overall GF Score™ is 90/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co (FRA:CHK), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co (FRA:CHK) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of €2.35 is trading 28.1% below its estimated GF Value™ of €3.27. GuruFocus considers China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for FRA:CHK:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
  • GF Value™: €3.27 vs. price of €2.35 (28.1% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 90/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:CHK stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co Business Description

Address Xuehua Road, Xin\'an Street, No. 2, 30th Floor, Snow Beer Headquarters Building, 70th District, Bao\'an District, Shenzhen, CHN
China Resources Beer, or CR Beer, was originally a conglomerate enterprise with operations across retail, beer, food, and beverage industries. In September 2015, the company disposed of all its non-beer businesses and became a pure beer producer. Through a series of mergers and acquisitions, the company achieved its leadership position in China's beer industry. Amid the premiumization trend in the domestic beer market, CR Beer acquired Heineken China in 2019, which allows CR Beer access to a premium international beer brand and also leverages its sophisticated distribution network to grow Heineken's sales and market share. CR Beer is now China's largest brewer, with a volume share of about 26%, versus 15% of Tsingtao and 19% of Budweiser APAC, based on Euromonitor data.
90GF Score

Get the complete analysis for FRA:CHK

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€2.35
Price
€3.27
GF Value