What is Hutchison Whampoa Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Hutchison Whampoa's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Hutchison Whampoa's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Department Stores subindustry, Hutchison Whampoa's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Hutchison Whampoa's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Hutchison Whampoa's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Hutchison Whampoa's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Hutchison Whampoa Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Hutchison Whampoa (FRA:HUWH) Business Description
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Hutchison Whampoa Ltd is a multinational conglomerate engaged in the development, innovation and technology in various sector. The Company has six businesses segments: ports and related services, property and hotels, retail, infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications. The Company holds interests in 52 ports comprising 278 operational berths in 26 countries, including container terminals operating in five of the 10 busiest container ports in the world. It also engages in mid-stream operations, river trade, cruise terminal operations and ports related logistics services. It develops and invests in real estate projects, ranging from landmark office buildings to luxury residential properties. It holds a rental property portfolio of approximately 14.0 million square feet of office, commercial, industrial and residential premises, primarily in Hong Kong, as well as interests in a number of joint-venture developments in Mainland China and selective overseas markets. The Company has over 10,500 retail stores in 25 markets worldwide. Its retail portfolio comprises health and beauty products, supermarkets, consumer electronics and electrical appliances. The Company's infrastructure business operates mainly in Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the Mainland, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. The Company's investments in energy are principally in Canada, the United States, the Mainland, Taiwan, Greenland and Indonesia. Husky Energy Inc is a listed Canadian-based integrated energy and energy related company. The Company is an operator of mobile telecommunication and data services, and a mobile broadband technology in the world. It is also an owner and operator of fibre-optic fixed line networks in Hong Kong.
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