Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, MGM Resorts International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
MGM Resorts International (FRA:MGG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
MGM Resorts International Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
FRA:MGG vs WYNN, BYD, CZR: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Resorts & Casinos subindustry, MGM Resorts International's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
MGM Resorts International Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Travel & Leisure Industry
For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, MGM Resorts International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where MGM Resorts International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
MGM Resorts International Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.32
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.07% mean?
MGM Resorts International (FRA:MGG) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.07% as of Jun. 26, 2026.
Is MGM Resorts International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
MGM Resorts International's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%. Overall, MGM Resorts International has a GF Score™ of 80/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does MGM Resorts International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to WYNN and BYD?
MGM Resorts International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.07% can be compared against companies in the Travel & Leisure industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Travel & Leisure company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Travel & Leisure industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. MGM Resorts International's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is MGM Resorts International stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, MGM Resorts International (FRA:MGG) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is €41.33, compared to a current price of €42.60 — trading 3.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%. MGM Resorts International's overall GF Score™ is 80/100 with 10 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For MGM Resorts International (FRA:MGG), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is MGM Resorts International (FRA:MGG) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, MGM Resorts International stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of €42.60 is trading 3.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of €41.33.
GuruFocus considers MGM Resorts International to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for FRA:MGG:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.07%
GF Value™: €41.33 vs. price of €42.60 (3.1% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:MGG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
MGM Resorts is the largest resort operator on the Las Vegas Strip with 37,000 guest rooms and suites, representing about one fourth of all units in the market. The company's Vegas properties include MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, Luxor, New York-New York, and Bellagio. The Strip contributed approximately 56% of total EBITDAR in 2025. MGM also owns US regional assets, which represented a low 20s share of 2025 EBITDAR (MGM's Macao EBITDAR was 23% of the total in 2025). MGM's US sports and i-gaming operations are currently a high-single-digit percentage of its total revenue. The company also operates the 56%-owned MGM China casinos with a second property that opened on the Cotai Strip in early 2018. We estimate MGM will open a resort in Japan in 2030.
80GF Score
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