What is Talisman Energy Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Talisman Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Talisman Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, Talisman Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Talisman Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Talisman Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Talisman Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Talisman Energy Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Talisman Energy (FRA:TLM) Business Description
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Talisman Energy Inc was incorporated under the Canada Business Corporations Act in Canada on December 14, 1982. The Company is a Canadian-based independent oil and gas producers company. Its main business activities are exploration, development, production, transportation and marketing of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. In 2014, the Company's activities were conducted in four geographic segments: North America, the North Sea, Southeast Asia, and Other. The North America segment includes operations in Canada and the U.S. The North Sea segment includes operations and exploration activities in the UK and Norway. The Southeast Asia segment includes operations and exploration activities in Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Papua New Guinea and non-operated production in Australia/Timor-Leste. The Company also had non-operated production in Algeria, operations and exploration activities in Colombia and exploration activities in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. For ease of reference, the activities in Algeria, Colombia and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, where applicable, are referred to collectively as the other geographic segment or Rest of World, except where otherwise noted. For operational purposes, Talisman has two core operating areas: the Americas and Asia-Pacific. The Company's aggregate production from its consolidated entities and equity investments for the year ended December 31, 2014 was 369 mboe/d, comprised of 43 mbbls/d of oil and liquids and 794 mmcf/d of gas from North America; 43 mbbls/d of oil and 510 mmcf/d of gas from Southeast Asia; 30 mbbls/d of oil and liquids and 20 mmcf/d of gas from the North Sea; and 24 mbbls/d of oil and liquids and 48 mmcf/d of gas from other areas.
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