GBTG (Global Business Travel Group) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02% (As of Sep. 06, 2026)

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GBTG Global Business Travel Group Inc GBTG
70 GF Score
Price $9.48
GF Value $7.93
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 8 Warning Signs
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What is Global Business Travel Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Global Business Travel Group GBTG -0.11% 70 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Sep. 06, 2026. GuruFocus rates GBTG with a GF Score™ of 70/100 and a GF Value™ of $7.93 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 8 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Global Business Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Global Business Travel Group  (NYSE:GBTG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Global Business Travel Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

GBTG vs TNL, MMYT, NCLH: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Travel Services subindustry, Global Business Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Global Business Travel Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Travel & Leisure Industry

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Global Business Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Global Business Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


GBTG
70GF Score
Global Business Travel Group Inc GBTG
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Global Business Travel Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.58

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Sep. 06, 2026.
Is Global Business Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Global Business Travel Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, Global Business Travel Group has a GF Score™ of 70/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Global Business Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to TNL and MMYT?
Global Business Travel Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Travel & Leisure industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Travel & Leisure company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Travel & Leisure industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Global Business Travel Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Global Business Travel Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $7.93, compared to a current price of $9.48 — trading 19.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Global Business Travel Group's overall GF Score™ is 70/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Global Business Travel Group (GBTG), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Sep. 06, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Global Business Travel Group stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $9.48 is trading 19.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of $7.93. GuruFocus considers Global Business Travel Group to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for GBTG:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
  • GF Value™: $7.93 vs. price of $9.48 (19.5% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 70/100 with 8 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the GBTG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Global Business Travel Group Business Description

Address 666 3rd Avenue, 4th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10017
Global Business Travel Group Inc operates as a business-to-business travel platform. It is engaged in providing software and services to manage travel, expenses, and meetings and events for companies of all sizes. The company is engaged in building the marketplace in B2B travel to deliver unrivaled choice, value, and experiences. It also provides business travel solutions, simplified travel management, and business consulting services. Further, The company generates revenue in two ways that involves fees and other revenues relating to processing and servicing travel transactions received from clients and travel suppliers and revenues for the provision of products and professional services not directly related to transactions received from clients, travel suppliers and Network Partners.
70GF Score

Get the complete analysis for GBTG

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$9.48
Price
$7.93
GF Value