Global Business Travel Group (Global Business Travel Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2022. Start your Free Trial

What is Global Business Travel Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Global Business Travel Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Global Business Travel Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Global Business Travel Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Global Business Travel Group (Global Business Travel Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Global Business Travel Group Inc (NYSE:GBTG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

666 3rd Avenue, 4th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10017

Website

https://investors.amexglobalbusinesstravel.com

Global Business Travel Group Inc operates as a business-to-business travel platform. It is engaged in providing software and services to manage travel, expenses, and meetings and events for companies of all sizes. The company is engaged in building the marketplace in B2B travel to deliver unrivaled choice, value, and experiences. It also provides business travel solutions, simplified travel management, and business consulting services. Further, It provides a service solution, automated booking, diverse options, system integration, and specialized traveler care. The company also offers Expert Auditor Expert Care and Business Travel App.

Executives

Karen A Williams	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL GROUP, INC., 666 THIRD AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Paul G Abbott	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL GROUP, INC., 666 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Eric J. Bock	officer: See remarks	300 GALLERIA PARKWAY, NW, ATLANTA GA 30339
Martine Gerow	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL GROUP, INC., 666 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
James Peter Bush	director	200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285
Vliet Christopher Van	officer: Vice President, Controller	C/O GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL GROUP, INC., 666 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Asof Investment Management Llc	10 percent owner	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, C/O ARES MANAGEMENT, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Ares Management Llc	10 percent owner	2000 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 12TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Michael Qualantone	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL GROUP, INC., 666 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Expedia Group, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	1111 EXPEDIA GROUP WAY W., SEATTLE WA 98119
Evan Konwiser	officer: See remarks	C/O GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL GROUP, INC., 666 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Boriana Tchobanova	officer: Chief Transformation Officer	C/O GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL GROUP, INC., 666 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mark Hollyhead	officer: President, Egencia	C/O GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL GROUP, INC., 666 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Patricia Anne Huska	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL GROUP, INC., 666 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Andrew George Crawley	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL GROUP, INC., 666 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017