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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, New Concepts Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.94%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
New Concepts Holdings (HKSE:02221) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
New Concepts Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
HKSE:02221 vs PWR, FIX, EME: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Engineering & Construction subindustry, New Concepts Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
New Concepts Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Construction Industry
For the Construction industry and Industrials sector, New Concepts Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where New Concepts Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
New Concepts Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-3.92
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.94% mean?
New Concepts Holdings (HKSE:02221) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.94% as of Aug. 01, 2026.
Is New Concepts Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
New Concepts Holdings' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.94%. Overall, New Concepts Holdings has a GF Score™ of 52/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does New Concepts Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to PWR and FIX?
New Concepts Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.94% can be compared against companies in the Construction industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Construction company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Construction industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. New Concepts Holdings's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.94%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is New Concepts Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, New Concepts Holdings (HKSE:02221) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is HK$2.68, compared to a current price of HK$0.62 — trading 76.9% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.94%. New Concepts Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 52/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For New Concepts Holdings (HKSE:02221), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.94% as of Aug. 01, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is New Concepts Holdings (HKSE:02221) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, New Concepts Holdings stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of HK$0.62 is trading 76.9% below its estimated GF Value™ of HK$2.68.
GuruFocus considers New Concepts Holdings to be Possible Value Trap.
Key valuation signals for HKSE:02221:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 1.94%
GF Value™: HK$2.68 vs. price of HK$0.62 (76.9% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the HKSE:02221 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
New Concepts Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company, which majorly focuses on foundation works, civil engineering, and general building services, and environmental protection projects, including kitchen waste treatment, environmental park development, and new energy materials in Mainland China. The company's operating segment includes Construction works and Environmental protection services. It generates maximum revenue from the Construction works segment. The Construction work segment is engaged in the provision of foundation works, civil engineering works, and general building works in Hong Kong. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from Hong Kong and also has a presence in Mainland China.
52GF Score
Get the complete analysis for HKSE:02221
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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