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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group (HKSE:06989) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
HKSE:06989 vs CBRE, BEKE, JLL: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Real Estate Services subindustry, Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Real Estate Industry
Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-8.35
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group (HKSE:06989) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Aug. 09, 2026.
Is Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group has a GF Score™ of 77/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to CBRE and BEKE?
Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Real Estate industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Real Estate company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Real Estate industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group (HKSE:06989) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is HK$1.47, compared to a current price of HK$0.52 — trading 65% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group's overall GF Score™ is 77/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group (HKSE:06989), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Aug. 09, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group (HKSE:06989) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of HK$0.52 is trading 65% below its estimated GF Value™ of HK$1.47.
GuruFocus considers Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group to be Possible Value Trap.
Key valuation signals for HKSE:06989:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
GF Value™: HK$1.47 vs. price of HK$0.52 (65% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the HKSE:06989 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Excellence Commercial Property & Facilities Management Group Ltd is a commercial property management service provider, offering clients full-lifecycle asset maintenance and end-to-end service solutions. Its service types cover a wide range of real estate properties, including office buildings, commercial complexes, corporate headquarters, integrated offices, etc., providing them with comprehensive management services such as consulting, property services, integrated facilities management, asset operation management, and high-end business services, among others. Additionally, the company is also engaged in the leasing of car parks. Geographically, it generates maximum revenue from the Chinese Mainland.
77GF Score
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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