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ICF International (ICF International) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.03% (As of Jul. 20, 2024)


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What is ICF International Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, ICF International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of ICF International's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Consulting Services subindustry, ICF International's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


ICF International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Business Services Industry

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, ICF International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where ICF International's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



ICF International Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.96

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


ICF International  (NAS:ICFI) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


ICF International Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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ICF International (ICF International) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1902 Reston Metro Plaza, Reston, VA, USA, 20190
ICF International Inc provides professional services and technology-based solutions to government and commercial clients, including management, marketing, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services. Its services primarily support clients that operate in four key markets that include Energy, Environment, and Infrastructure, Health, Education, and Social Programs, Safety and Security and Consumer and Financial. The Company's major clients are United States federal government departments and agencies.
Executives
John Wasson officer: EVP & COO ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC., 1902 RESTON METRO PLAZA, RESTON VA 20190
Srikant Datar director ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC., 9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Lee Rodney Mark Jr. officer: Executive Vice President 1902 RESTON METRO PLAZA, RESTON VA 20190
Van Handel Michael J director MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Morgan James C M officer: Chief Financial Officer 1902 RESTON METRO PLAZA, RESTON VA 20190
Ranjit S Chadha officer: VP & Principal Accounting Off. C/O DENTSPLY SIRONA INC, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Anne F Choate officer: Executive Vice President 1902 RESTON METRO PLAZA, RESTON VA 20190
Barry M Broadus officer: Chief Financial Officer 1902 RESTON METRO PLAZA, RESTON VA 20190
Michelle A Williams director 1902 RESTON METRO PLAZA, RESTON VA 20190
Scott B Salmirs director 551 FIFTH AVE, SUITE 300, NEW YORK NY 10176
Sergio J Ostria officer: Executive Vice President 9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Sudhakar Kesavan director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC., 9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Donald J Terreri officer: VP & Principal Acct. Officer 9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Marilyn C Crouther director 1902 RESTON METRO PLAZA, RESTON VA 20190
Peter M Schulte director, 10 percent owner 900 THIRD AVENUE 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022-4775