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ICF International (ICF International) Earnings Power Value (EPV) : $58.60 (As of Mar24)


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What is ICF International Earnings Power Value (EPV)?

As of Mar24, ICF International's earnings power value is $58.60. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -155.65

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


ICF International Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for ICF International's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

ICF International Earnings Power Value (EPV) Chart

ICF International Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 50.04 48.47 43.62 40.88 57.48

ICF International Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 40.42 43.79 50.79 57.48 58.60

Competitive Comparison of ICF International's Earnings Power Value (EPV)

For the Consulting Services subindustry, ICF International's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


ICF International's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution in the Business Services Industry

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, ICF International's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where ICF International's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



ICF International Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

ICF International's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 1,687
DDA 42
Operating Margin % 6.66
SGA * 25% 113
Tax Rate % 22.96
Maintenance Capex 18
Cash and Cash Equivalents 4
Short-Term Debt 49
Long-Term Debt 633
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 19

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 6.66%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $1,687 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 6.66%, Average Adjusted SGA = 113,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 1,687 * 6.66% +113 = $225.529971232 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 22.96%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $225.529971232 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 225.529971232 * ( 1 - 22.96% ) = $173.75392808641 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 42 * 0.5 * 22.96% = $4.8560392725 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 173.75392808641 + 4.8560392725 = $178.60996735891 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
ICF International's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $18 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. ICF International's current cash and cash equivalent = $4 Mil.
ICF International's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 633 + 49 = $681.984 Mil.
ICF International's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 19 Mil.

ICF International's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Mar24 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 178.60996735891 - 18)/ 9%+4-681.984 )/19
=58.60

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 58.595585910197-149.80 )/58.595585910197
= -155.65%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


ICF International  (NAS:ICFI) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


ICF International Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ICF International's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


ICF International (ICF International) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1902 Reston Metro Plaza, Reston, VA, USA, 20190
ICF International Inc provides professional services and technology-based solutions to government and commercial clients, including management, marketing, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services. Its services primarily support clients that operate in four key markets that include Energy, Environment, and Infrastructure, Health, Education, and Social Programs, Safety and Security and Consumer and Financial. The Company's major clients are United States federal government departments and agencies.
Executives
John Wasson officer: EVP & COO ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC., 1902 RESTON METRO PLAZA, RESTON VA 20190
Srikant Datar director ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC., 9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Lee Rodney Mark Jr. officer: Executive Vice President 1902 RESTON METRO PLAZA, RESTON VA 20190
Van Handel Michael J director MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Morgan James C M officer: Chief Financial Officer 1902 RESTON METRO PLAZA, RESTON VA 20190
Ranjit S Chadha officer: VP & Principal Accounting Off. C/O DENTSPLY SIRONA INC, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Anne F Choate officer: Executive Vice President 1902 RESTON METRO PLAZA, RESTON VA 20190
Barry M Broadus officer: Chief Financial Officer 1902 RESTON METRO PLAZA, RESTON VA 20190
Michelle A Williams director 1902 RESTON METRO PLAZA, RESTON VA 20190
Scott B Salmirs director 551 FIFTH AVE, SUITE 300, NEW YORK NY 10176
Sergio J Ostria officer: Executive Vice President 9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Sudhakar Kesavan director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC., 9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Donald J Terreri officer: VP & Principal Acct. Officer 9300 LEE HIGHWAY, FAIRFAX VA 22031
Marilyn C Crouther director 1902 RESTON METRO PLAZA, RESTON VA 20190
Peter M Schulte director, 10 percent owner 900 THIRD AVENUE 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022-4775