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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, PT Pinago Utama Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
PT Pinago Utama Tbk (ISX:PNGO) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
PT Pinago Utama Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
ISX:PNGO vs ADM, BG, TSN: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Farm Products subindustry, PT Pinago Utama Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
PT Pinago Utama Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Consumer Packaged Goods Industry
For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, PT Pinago Utama Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where PT Pinago Utama Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
PT Pinago Utama Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-8.71
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
PT Pinago Utama Tbk (ISX:PNGO) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Jul. 24, 2026.
Is PT Pinago Utama Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
PT Pinago Utama Tbk's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, PT Pinago Utama Tbk has a GF Score™ of 84/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does PT Pinago Utama Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to ADM and BG?
PT Pinago Utama Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Consumer Packaged Goods company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Consumer Packaged Goods industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. PT Pinago Utama Tbk's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is PT Pinago Utama Tbk stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PT Pinago Utama Tbk (ISX:PNGO) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is Rp1,761.05, compared to a current price of Rp3,530.00 — trading 100.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. PT Pinago Utama Tbk's overall GF Score™ is 84/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For PT Pinago Utama Tbk (ISX:PNGO), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jul. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is PT Pinago Utama Tbk (ISX:PNGO) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PT Pinago Utama Tbk stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of Rp3,530.00 is trading 100.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of Rp1,761.05.
GuruFocus considers PT Pinago Utama Tbk to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for ISX:PNGO:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
GF Value™: Rp1,761.05 vs. price of Rp3,530.00 (100.4% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ISX:PNGO stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
AddressPantai Indah Kapuk, Blok I No. 9, Rukan Exclusive Bukit Golf Mediterania, RT. 004, RW.003, Kel. Kamal Muara, Kec. Penjaringa, Jakarta Utara, DKI Jakarta, Jakarta, IDN, 14470
PT Pinago Utama Tbk is an Indonesian agribusiness company. It is engaged in managing oil palm and rubber plantations and their processing industries, producing products such as fresh fruit bunches, crude palm oil, palm kernel, latex, crumb rubber, smoked rubber sheets, palm kernel oil, and ImproBio organic fertilizer. Additionally, the company has palm oil and rubber processing plants that process raw materials into end products, such as organic fertilizer and biogas. Its operating segments are: Rubber, Palm Oil, and Compost. The majority of the company's revenue is generated from the Palm Oil segment. Geographically, it derives maximum revenue from the domestic market, and also exports its products to other countries.
84GF Score
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