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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Jewett-Cameron Trading Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.40%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Jewett-Cameron Trading Co (NAS:JCTC) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Jewett-Cameron Trading Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
JCTC vs ITP, SSD, UFPI: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Lumber & Wood Production subindustry, Jewett-Cameron Trading Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Jewett-Cameron Trading Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Forest Products Industry
For the Forest Products industry and Basic Materials sector, Jewett-Cameron Trading Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Jewett-Cameron Trading Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Jewett-Cameron Trading Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-5.52
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.40% mean?
Jewett-Cameron Trading Co (JCTC) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.40% as of Jul. 16, 2026.
Is Jewett-Cameron Trading Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Jewett-Cameron Trading Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.40%. Overall, Jewett-Cameron Trading Co has a GF Score™ of 65/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Jewett-Cameron Trading Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to ITP and SSD?
Jewett-Cameron Trading Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.40% can be compared against companies in the Forest Products industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Forest Products company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Forest Products industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Jewett-Cameron Trading Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.40%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Jewett-Cameron Trading Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Jewett-Cameron Trading Co (JCTC) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $3.32, compared to a current price of $2.81 — trading 15.5% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.40%. Jewett-Cameron Trading Co's overall GF Score™ is 65/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Jewett-Cameron Trading Co (JCTC), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.40% as of Jul. 16, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Jewett-Cameron Trading Co (JCTC) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Jewett-Cameron Trading Co stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $2.81 is trading 15.5% below its estimated GF Value™ of $3.32.
GuruFocus considers Jewett-Cameron Trading Co to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for JCTC:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.40%
GF Value™: $3.32 vs. price of $2.81 (15.5% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the JCTC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Jewett-Cameron Trading Co Ltd through its subsidiaries engages in the wholesale distribution of a variety of specialty wood products. Its operating segments include, The Industrial wood products segment is engaged in the processing and distribution of industrial wood products. The Pet Fencing and Other segment, which is the key revenue driver, operates as a wholesaler of wood products and a manufacturer and distributor of specialty metal products. The Seed processing and sales segment processes and distributes agricultural seed and Corporate and administrative. The company predominantly operates in the United States and also has a presence in Canada, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific, and other regions.
65GF Score
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