Fortress Real Estate Investments (JSE:FFB) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.01% (As of Jul. 14, 2026)

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Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
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Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

JSE:FFB Fortress Real Estate Investments Ltd JSE:FFB
80 GF Score
Price R25.06
GF Value R21.76
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 10 Warning Signs
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What is Fortress Real Estate Investments Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Fortress Real Estate Investments JSE:FFB -0.48% 80 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01% as of Jul. 14, 2026. GuruFocus rates JSE:FFB with a GF Score™ of 80/100 and a GF Value™ of R21.76 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 10 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Fortress Real Estate Investments's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Fortress Real Estate Investments  (JSE:FFB) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Fortress Real Estate Investments Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


JSE:FFB vs CBRE, BEKE, JLL: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Real Estate Services subindustry, Fortress Real Estate Investments's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Fortress Real Estate Investments Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Real Estate Industry

For the Real Estate industry and Real Estate sector, Fortress Real Estate Investments's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Fortress Real Estate Investments's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


JSE:FFB
80GF Score
Fortress Real Estate Investments Ltd JSE:FFB
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Fortress Real Estate Investments Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.98

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.01%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% mean?
Fortress Real Estate Investments (JSE:FFB) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% as of Jul. 14, 2026.
Is Fortress Real Estate Investments' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Fortress Real Estate Investments' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. Overall, Fortress Real Estate Investments has a GF Score™ of 80/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Fortress Real Estate Investments' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to CBRE and BEKE?
Fortress Real Estate Investments' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% can be compared against companies in the Real Estate industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Real Estate company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Real Estate industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Fortress Real Estate Investments's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Fortress Real Estate Investments stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fortress Real Estate Investments (JSE:FFB) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is R21.76, compared to a current price of R25.06 — trading 15.2% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. Fortress Real Estate Investments' overall GF Score™ is 80/100 with 10 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Fortress Real Estate Investments (JSE:FFB), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01% as of Jul. 14, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Fortress Real Estate Investments (JSE:FFB) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fortress Real Estate Investments stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of R25.06 is trading 15.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of R21.76. GuruFocus considers Fortress Real Estate Investments to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for JSE:FFB:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.01%
  • GF Value™: R21.76 vs. price of R25.06 (15.2% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 80/100 with 10 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the JSE:FFB stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Fortress Real Estate Investments Business Description

Address Block C, Cullinan Place, Cullinan Close, Morningside, Johannesburg, GT, ZAF, 2196
Fortress Real Estate Investments Ltd invests in both direct property assets and listed real estate securities including both local and foreign property companies. It owns a portfolio of retail, office, industrial, logistics-CEE, logistics-SA, corporate and other. The company generates maximum revenue from the Logistics-SA segment.
80GF Score

Get the complete analysis for JSE:FFB

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

R25.06
Price
R21.76
GF Value