SAorate Real Estate (JSE:SAC) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03% (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


JSE:SAC SA Corporate Real Estate Ltd JSE:SAC
67 GF Score
Price R3.63
GF Value R2.36
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 9 Warning Signs
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What is SAorate Real Estate Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

SAorate Real Estate JSE:SAC +0.55% 67 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates JSE:SAC with a GF Score™ of 67/100 and a GF Value™ of R2.36 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 9 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, SAorate Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


SAorate Real Estate  (JSE:SAC) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


SAorate Real Estate Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


JSE:SAC vs VICI, WPC: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the REIT - Diversified subindustry, SAorate Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


SAorate Real Estate Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs REITs Industry

For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, SAorate Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where SAorate Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


JSE:SAC
67GF Score
SA Corporate Real Estate Ltd JSE:SAC
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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SAorate Real Estate Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.08

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% mean?
SAorate Real Estate (JSE:SAC) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is SAorate Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
SAorate Real Estate's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Overall, SAorate Real Estate has a GF Score™ of 67/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does SAorate Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to VICI and WPC?
SAorate Real Estate's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% can be compared against companies in the REITs industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a REITs company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the REITs industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. SAorate Real Estate's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is SAorate Real Estate stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, SAorate Real Estate (JSE:SAC) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is R2.36, compared to a current price of R3.63 — trading 53.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. SAorate Real Estate's overall GF Score™ is 67/100 with 9 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For SAorate Real Estate (JSE:SAC), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is SAorate Real Estate (JSE:SAC) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, SAorate Real Estate stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of R3.63 is trading 53.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of R2.36. GuruFocus considers SAorate Real Estate to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for JSE:SAC:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03%
  • GF Value™: R2.36 vs. price of R3.63 (53.8% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 67/100 with 9 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the JSE:SAC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


SAorate Real Estate Business Description

Industry Real EstateREITs
Address Corner Lower Road and West Road South, GreenPark Corner, 16th Floor, Morningside, Johannesburg, GT, ZAF, 2196
SA Corporate Real Estate Ltd is a real estate investment trust. The company's portfolio includes mostly industrial and retail properties, with the remainder of inner-city residential and commercial assets. The properties are mainly located in the metropolitan centres of South Africa, with more than half located in Gauteng, approximately one-third in KwaZulu-Natal, and the others in Western Cape and other regions. The company's tenants consist of large national tenants, government tenants and franchisees. Its reportable segments are Retail, Industrial, Commercial, Residential, and Corporate. The company generates the maximum of its revenue from the Residential segment.
67GF Score

Get the complete analysis for JSE:SAC

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

R3.63
Price
R2.36
GF Value