LEDS (SemiLEDs) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.31% (As of Jun. 24, 2026)


LEDS SemiLEDs Corp LEDS
51 GF Score
Price $1.72
GF Value $6.01
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 4 Warning Signs
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What is SemiLEDs Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

SemiLEDs LEDS -6.04% 51 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.31% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates LEDS with a GF Score™ of 51/100 and a GF Value™ of $6.01 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, SemiLEDs's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.31%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

SemiLEDs  (NAS:LEDS) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

SemiLEDs Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

LEDS vs PRSO, GUER, MOBX: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Semiconductors subindustry, SemiLEDs's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

SemiLEDs Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Semiconductors Industry

For the Semiconductors industry and Technology sector, SemiLEDs's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where SemiLEDs's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


LEDS
51GF Score
SemiLEDs Corp LEDS
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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SemiLEDs Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-5.79

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.31%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.31% mean?
SemiLEDs (LEDS) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.31% as of Jun. 24, 2026.
Is SemiLEDs' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
SemiLEDs' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.31%. Overall, SemiLEDs has a GF Score™ of 51/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does SemiLEDs' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to PRSO and GUER?
SemiLEDs' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.31% can be compared against companies in the Semiconductors industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Semiconductors company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Semiconductors industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. SemiLEDs's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.31%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is SemiLEDs stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, SemiLEDs (LEDS) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is $6.01, compared to a current price of $1.72 — trading 71.4% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.31%. SemiLEDs' overall GF Score™ is 51/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For SemiLEDs (LEDS), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.31% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is SemiLEDs (LEDS) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, SemiLEDs stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $1.72 is trading 71.4% below its estimated GF Value™ of $6.01. GuruFocus considers SemiLEDs to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for LEDS:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.31%
  • GF Value™: $6.01 vs. price of $1.72 (71.4% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 51/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the LEDS stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

SemiLEDs Business Description

Address No.11 Ke Jung Road, 3rd Floor, Chu-Nan Site. Chu-Nan 350, Hsinchu Science Park, Miao-Li County, Miao-Li, TWN, 350
SemiLEDs Corp develops, manufactures, and sells light-emitting diode chips and LED components. The company's products include LED Chips, LED Components, and Lighting Products. Its products are used for general lighting applications, including street lights and commercial, industrial, system, and residential lighting; specialty industrial applications, such as ultraviolet, or Ultraviolet, curing of polymers, LED light therapy in medical/cosmetic applications, counterfeit detection, LED lighting for horticulture applications, architectural lighting and entertainment lighting. Substantial revenue is generated from the sale of LED components products. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from Japan.
51GF Score

Get the complete analysis for LEDS

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$1.72
Price
$6.01
GF Value