What is Lonrho Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Lonrho's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Lonrho's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Conglomerates subindustry, Lonrho's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Lonrho's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Conglomerates Industry
For the Conglomerates industry and Industrials sector, Lonrho's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Lonrho's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Lonrho Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Lonrho (LSE:LONR) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Level 2, 25 Berkeley Square, London, GBR, W1J 6HB
Lonrho PLC is engaged in providing the infrastructure and services required for the growing oil, mineral and agricultural sectors in Africa. The Company has a diverse portfolio of investments across Sub-Saharan Africa in four core operating sectors: Agribusiness, Infrastructure, Hotels and Support Services. Agribusiness vertically integrates the production, sourcing, logistics, processing and distribution of agricultural products from Sub-Saharan Africa to the consumer. The division supplies to its retailers in Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, the USA, Middle East, Scandinavia and the Far East. The division also distributes agricultural and heavy machinery. Infrastructure division develops and manages oil logistics terminals. Luba Freeport, the oil service terminal in the Gulf of Guinea, has attracted oil service companies to be long term tenants at the port to service offshore exploration and production rigs. The Company's Hotel division includes hotels centred on the commercial, conference and business related markets across the Continent. It owns or manages hotels in Lubumbashi and Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Maputo in Mozambique, Gaborone in Botswana and Mutare in Zimbabwe. IT business is a full systems integrator and manager that designs, builds, develops and integrates IT solutions for large corporate clients, banks and governments and then undertakes management contracts to run and manage installations. The IT division is a distributor for Cisco, Microsoft, Dell and Hewlett Packard systems and equipment.
Lonrho (LSE:LONR) Headlines
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
LSE:LONR has been successfully added to your