Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Marathon Petroleum's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Marathon Petroleum (LTS:0JYA) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Marathon Petroleum Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
LTS:0JYA vs VLO, PSX, DINO: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Marathon Petroleum's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Marathon Petroleum Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Oil & Gas Industry
For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Marathon Petroleum's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Marathon Petroleum's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Marathon Petroleum Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.90
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% mean?
Marathon Petroleum (LTS:0JYA) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is Marathon Petroleum's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Marathon Petroleum's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Overall, Marathon Petroleum has a GF Score™ of 69/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Marathon Petroleum's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to VLO and PSX?
Marathon Petroleum's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% can be compared against companies in the Oil & Gas industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Oil & Gas company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Oil & Gas industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Marathon Petroleum's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Marathon Petroleum stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Marathon Petroleum (LTS:0JYA) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $206.85, compared to a current price of $246.32 — trading 19.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Marathon Petroleum's overall GF Score™ is 69/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Marathon Petroleum (LTS:0JYA), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Marathon Petroleum (LTS:0JYA) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Marathon Petroleum stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $246.32 is trading 19.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of $206.85.
GuruFocus considers Marathon Petroleum to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for LTS:0JYA:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04%
GF Value™: $206.85 vs. price of $246.32 (19.1% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the LTS:0JYA stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Marathon Petroleum is a leading integrated downstream and midstream energy company that operates 13 refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States with an aggregate crude oil refining capacity of 3.0 million barrels per day. The company is one of the largest producers of renewable diesel in the US; its Dickinson, North Dakota facility has the capacity to produce 184 million gallons per year, and its Martinez, California, joint venture facility (a 50/50 partnership with Neste) reached its full capacity of 730 million gallons per year in late 2024. Marathon also owns the general partner and approximately 64% of MPLX LP, a large-cap master limited partnership that owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets.
69GF Score
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