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MercadoLibre (MercadoLibre) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.04% (As of Jun. 25, 2024)


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What is MercadoLibre Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, MercadoLibre's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of MercadoLibre's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Internet Retail subindustry, MercadoLibre's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


MercadoLibre's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, MercadoLibre's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where MercadoLibre's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



MercadoLibre Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.92

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


MercadoLibre  (NAS:MELI) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


MercadoLibre Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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MercadoLibre (MercadoLibre) Business Description

Industry
Address
WTC Free Zone, Dr. Luis Bonavita 1294, Of. 1733, Tower II, Montevideo, URY, 11300
MercadoLibre runs the largest e-commerce marketplace in Latin America, connecting a network of more than 148 million active users and 1 million active sellers as of the end of 2022 across an 18-country footprint. The company also operates a host of complementary businesses, with shipping solutions (Mercado Envios), a payment and financing operation (Mercado Pago and Mercado Credito), advertisements (Mercado Clics), classifieds, and a turnkey e-commerce solution (Mercado Shops) rounding out its arsenal. MercadoLibre generates revenue from final value fees, advertising royalties, payment processing, insertion fees, subscription fees, and interest income from consumer and small-business lending.
Executives
De La Serna Juan Martin officer: Executive VP Corporate Affairs AV. PTE. PERON 2375, LOTE MN04, PILAR, BUENOS AIRES C1 1629
Emiliano Calemzuk director C/O MERCADOLIBRE, INC., TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Petroni Merhy Andrea Mayumi director HOUSE B, 32 STANLEY VILLAGE ROAD, STANLEY K3 000000
Marcelo Melamud officer: V. P. Chief Accounting Officer TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Richard A Sanders director 80 PALL MALL, LONDON X0 SW1Y 5ES
Ariel Szarfsztejn officer: Executive VP - Commerce POSTA 4789, 6TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430CRG
Henrique Vasoncelos Dubugras director 1000 LAUREL WAY, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
Alejandro Nicolas Aguzin director ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Meyer Malka director 364 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Roberto Balls Sallouti director ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1 C1430CRG
Stelleo Tolda officer: Country Manager Brazil C/O MERCADOLIBRE, INC., TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Ebay Inc 10 percent owner 2025 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Daniel Rabinovich officer: VP-Chief Technology Officer ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430CRG
A Michael Spence director 121 INNOVATION DR STE 200, IRVINE CA 92612
Pedro Arnt officer: Executive VP and CFO ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430CRG

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