Amer Sports (MEX:ASN) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04% (As of Sep. 18, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

MEX:ASN Amer Sports Inc MEX:ASN
66 GF Score
Price MXN570.00
GF Value MXN790.35
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
! 1 Warning Sign
View Full Analysis

What is Amer Sports Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Amer Sports MEX:ASN 66 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Sep. 18, 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:ASN with a GF Score™ of 66/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN790.35 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 1 warning sign investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Amer Sports's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Amer Sports  (MEX:ASN) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Amer Sports Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


MEX:ASN vs HAS, LTH, GOLF: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Leisure subindustry, Amer Sports's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Amer Sports Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Travel & Leisure Industry

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Amer Sports's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Amer Sports's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


MEX:ASN
66GF Score
Amer Sports Inc MEX:ASN
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Amer Sports Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.88

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% mean?
Amer Sports (MEX:ASN) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% as of Sep. 18, 2026.
Is Amer Sports' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Amer Sports' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Overall, Amer Sports has a GF Score™ of 66/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Amer Sports' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to HAS and LTH?
Amer Sports' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% can be compared against companies in the Travel & Leisure industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Travel & Leisure company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Travel & Leisure industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Amer Sports's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Amer Sports stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Amer Sports (MEX:ASN) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN790.35, compared to a current price of MXN570.00 — trading 27.9% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Amer Sports' overall GF Score™ is 66/100 with 1 warning sign to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Amer Sports (MEX:ASN), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Sep. 18, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Amer Sports (MEX:ASN) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Amer Sports stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of MXN570.00 is trading 27.9% below its estimated GF Value™ of MXN790.35. GuruFocus considers Amer Sports to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for MEX:ASN:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04%
  • GF Value™: MXN790.35 vs. price of MXN570.00 (27.9% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 66/100 with 1 warning sign

No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:ASN stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Amer Sports Business Description

Other Exchanges AS:USA
Address Siltasaarenkatu 8-10, Helsinki, FIN, 00530
Amer Sports manages a diverse portfolio of 10 outdoor and action sports brands that collectively generated revenue of $6.6 billion in 2025. Although primarily owned by the Chinese conglomerate Anta Sports, Amer operates with a degree of autonomy. In its rapidly expanding China business, the company is subject to closer oversight, but it manages its operations outside of China with relative independence. In 2025, the firm generated 32% of its revenue from the Americas, 28% from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, 28% from China, and 12% from the Asia-Pacific, excluding China.
66GF Score

Get the complete analysis for MEX:ASN

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

MXN570.00
Price
MXN790.35
GF Value