Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Howmet Aerospace's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Howmet Aerospace (MEX:HWM) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Howmet Aerospace Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
MEX:HWM vs GD, LMT, RKLB: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Aerospace & Defense subindustry, Howmet Aerospace's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Howmet Aerospace Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Aerospace & Defense Industry
For the Aerospace & Defense industry and Industrials sector, Howmet Aerospace's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Howmet Aerospace's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Howmet Aerospace Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-8.28
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% mean?
Howmet Aerospace (MEX:HWM) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is Howmet Aerospace's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Howmet Aerospace's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Overall, Howmet Aerospace has a GF Score™ of 69/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Howmet Aerospace's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to GD and LMT?
Howmet Aerospace's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% can be compared against companies in the Aerospace & Defense industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Aerospace & Defense company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Aerospace & Defense industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Howmet Aerospace's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Howmet Aerospace stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Howmet Aerospace (MEX:HWM) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN2,459.04, compared to a current price of MXN4,875.00 — trading 98.2% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Howmet Aerospace's overall GF Score™ is 69/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Howmet Aerospace (MEX:HWM), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Howmet Aerospace (MEX:HWM) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Howmet Aerospace stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of MXN4,875.00 is trading 98.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of MXN2,459.04.
GuruFocus considers Howmet Aerospace to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for MEX:HWM:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03%
GF Value™: MXN2,459.04 vs. price of MXN4,875.00 (98.2% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:HWM stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Howmet Aerospace Inc offers engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries. The company's products and solutions include investment castings for jet engines and industrial gas turbines; seamless rolled rings for jet engines; fastening systems for aerospace, industrial and commercial transportation applications; forged jet engine components (e.g., jet engine disks); machined and forged aircraft parts; and forged aluminum commercial vehicle wheels, all of which are sold directly to customers or through distributors. It has four reportable segments: Engine Products, which derives key revenue, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. Geographically, the company derives maximum revenue from the USA, followed by France, Japan, Germany, and other markets.
69GF Score
Get the complete analysis for MEX:HWM
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
MEX:HWM has been successfully added to your 