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MNHFF (Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.05% (As of Mar. 14, 2025)


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What is Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Packaging & Containers subindustry, Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Packaging & Containers Industry

For the Packaging & Containers industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.66

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.05%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG  (OTCPK:MNHFF) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG Business Description

Address
Brahmsplatz 6, Vienna, AUT, A-1040
Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG manufactures and sells a variety of folding cartons for consumer goods packaging. The firm organizes itself into two segments based on the product type. The MM packaging segment, which generates the majority of revenue, sells packaging for consumer goods, which include cigarettes, pharmaceuticals, detergents, personal care products, and luxury products. The MM Board & Paper segment manufactures and markets numerous grades of cartonboard, focusing on coated cartonboard produced predominantly from recycled fibers as well as virgin fiber-based cartonboard. The vast majority of revenue comes from Europe.