Green Cross Health (NZSE:GXH) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02% (As of Jul. 09, 2026)


NZSE:GXH Green Cross Health Ltd NZSE:GXH
63 GF Score
Price NZ$2.00
GF Value NZ$1.08
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 7 Warning Signs
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What is Green Cross Health Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Green Cross Health NZSE:GXH +1.01% 63 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jul. 09, 2026. GuruFocus rates NZSE:GXH with a GF Score™ of 63/100 and a GF Value™ of NZ$1.08 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Green Cross Health's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Green Cross Health  (NZSE:GXH) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Green Cross Health Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


Green Cross Health Probability of Financial Distress (%) Competitor Comparison

For the Pharmaceutical Retailers subindustry, Green Cross Health's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Green Cross Health Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Healthcare Providers & Services Industry

For the Healthcare Providers & Services industry and Healthcare sector, Green Cross Health's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Green Cross Health's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


NZSE:GXH
63GF Score
Green Cross Health Ltd NZSE:GXH
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Green Cross Health Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.65

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
Green Cross Health (NZSE:GXH) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Jul. 09, 2026.
Is Green Cross Health's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Green Cross Health's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, Green Cross Health has a GF Score™ of 63/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Green Cross Health's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to competitors?
Green Cross Health's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Healthcare Providers & Services industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Healthcare Providers & Services company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Healthcare Providers & Services industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Green Cross Health's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Green Cross Health stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Green Cross Health (NZSE:GXH) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is NZ$1.08, compared to a current price of NZ$2.00 — trading 85.2% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Green Cross Health's overall GF Score™ is 63/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Green Cross Health (NZSE:GXH), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jul. 09, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Green Cross Health (NZSE:GXH) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Green Cross Health stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of NZ$2.00 is trading 85.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of NZ$1.08. GuruFocus considers Green Cross Health to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for NZSE:GXH:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
  • GF Value™: NZ$1.08 vs. price of NZ$2.00 (85.2% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 63/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the NZSE:GXH stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Green Cross Health Business Description

Address 602 Great South Road, Ellerslie, Ground Floor, Building B, Millennium Centre, Auckland, NTL, NZL, 1051
Green Cross Health Ltd is engaged in providing healthcare services in New Zealand. The reportable segments of the group are Pharmacy services and medical services. The majority of the revenue is generated from the Pharmacy services segment. The pharmacy services segment provides retail and dispensary services, and the medical services segment provides GP, nursing, and urgent care services. The majority of its revenue is generated from the pharmacy segment.
63GF Score

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Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

NZ$2.00
Price
NZ$1.08
GF Value