ORVMF (Orvana Minerals) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.08% (As of Jun. 24, 2026)


ORVMF Orvana Minerals Corp ORVMF
31 GF Score
Price $1.04
GF Value $0.32
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is Orvana Minerals Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Orvana Minerals ORVMF -7.05% 31 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates ORVMF with a GF Score™ of 31/100 and a GF Value™ of $0.32 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Orvana Minerals's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Orvana Minerals  (OTCPK:ORVMF) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Orvana Minerals Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

ORVMF vs HL: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Other Precious Metals & Mining subindustry, Orvana Minerals's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Orvana Minerals Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Metals & Mining Industry

For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Orvana Minerals's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Orvana Minerals's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


ORVMF
31GF Score
Orvana Minerals Corp ORVMF
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Orvana Minerals Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.13

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.08%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.08% mean?
Orvana Minerals (ORVMF) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.08% as of Jun. 24, 2026.
Is Orvana Minerals' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Orvana Minerals' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%. Overall, Orvana Minerals has a GF Score™ of 31/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Orvana Minerals' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to HL?
Orvana Minerals' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.08% can be compared against companies in the Metals & Mining industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Metals & Mining company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Metals & Mining industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Orvana Minerals's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Orvana Minerals stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Orvana Minerals (ORVMF) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $0.32, compared to a current price of $1.04 — trading 225.3% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%. Orvana Minerals' overall GF Score™ is 31/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Orvana Minerals (ORVMF), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Orvana Minerals (ORVMF) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Orvana Minerals stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $1.04 is trading 225.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of $0.32. GuruFocus considers Orvana Minerals to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for ORVMF:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.08%
  • GF Value™: $0.32 vs. price of $1.04 (225.3% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 31/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ORVMF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Orvana Minerals Business Description

Other Exchanges O6M:GermanyORV:Canada
Address 70 York Street, Suite 1710, Toronto, ON, CAN, M5J 1S9
Orvana Minerals Corp is a Canadian mining and exploration company that is involved in the evaluation, development, and mining of precious and base metal deposits. The company predominantly operates in the gold and copper mining industry and its majority of the products are gold dore and gold/copper concentrates. Its properties include El Valle and Carles mines and the El Valle processing plant (collectively, El Valle), producer of copper concentrate and dore, Don Mario Operation and Taguas Property. The company's segments include Orovalle, which operates El Valle Mine in Spain, EMIPA which operates Don Mario Mine in Bolivia, Orvana Argentina and Corporate. Majority of the revenue for the company is generated from its Orovalle segment.
31GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ORVMF

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$1.04
Price
$0.32
GF Value