Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, DMCI Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
DMCI Holdings (PHS:DMC) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
DMCI Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
PHS:DMC vs HON, MMM: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Conglomerates subindustry, DMCI Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
DMCI Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Conglomerates Industry
For the Conglomerates industry and Industrials sector, DMCI Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where DMCI Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
DMCI Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.83
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% mean?
DMCI Holdings (PHS:DMC) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% as of Jun. 24, 2026.
Is DMCI Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
DMCI Holdings' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. Overall, DMCI Holdings has a GF Score™ of 73/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does DMCI Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to HON and MMM?
DMCI Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.04% can be compared against companies in the Conglomerates industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Conglomerates company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Conglomerates industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. DMCI Holdings's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is DMCI Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, DMCI Holdings (PHS:DMC) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is ₱10.39, compared to a current price of ₱7.93 — trading 23.7% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%. DMCI Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 73/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For DMCI Holdings (PHS:DMC), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is DMCI Holdings (PHS:DMC) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, DMCI Holdings stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of ₱7.93 is trading 23.7% below its estimated GF Value™ of ₱10.39.
GuruFocus considers DMCI Holdings to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for PHS:DMC:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.04%
GF Value™: ₱10.39 vs. price of ₱7.93 (23.7% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the PHS:DMC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
DMCI Holdings Inc is an engineering conglomerate in the Philippines, operating in construction, real estate, coal mining, nickel mining, power generation, and water distribution businesses. The activities of the company include construction-related businesses such as the production and trading of concrete products, exploration, mining, and development of coal resources, mining and selling nickel ore, residential development, power generation through coal-fired power plants and satellite power plants, water services, and others. It organizes its business into operating segments: construction and others, coal mining, nickel mining, real estate, on-grid power, off-grid power, water, and cement manufacturing. It generates the majority of its revenue from the coal mining segment.
73GF Score
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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