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Redwire (Redwire) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.10% (As of May. 01, 2024)


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What is Redwire Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Redwire's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Redwire's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Aerospace & Defense subindustry, Redwire's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Redwire's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Aerospace & Defense Industry

For the Aerospace & Defense industry and Industrials sector, Redwire's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Redwire's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Redwire Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-6.96

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.10%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Redwire  (NYSE:RDW) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Redwire Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Redwire (Redwire) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
8226 Philips Highway, Suite 101, Jacksonville, FL, USA, 32256
Redwire Corp is engaged in mission-critical space solutions and reliable components for the next generation space economy, with IP for solar power generation and in-space 3D printing and manufacturing. It assists its customers in solving the complex challenges of future space missions. Its operating units are organized into broad business areas focusing on space commercialization, digitally engineered spacecraft, on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing, advanced sensors and components, and space domain awareness and resiliency.
Executives
Chris Edmunds officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O REDWIRE CORPORATION, 8226 PHILIPS HIGHWAY, SUITE 101, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256
Jonathan Baliff director, officer: President and CFO 211 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Ae Industrial Partners Fund Ii Gp, Lp 10 percent owner 2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
M. David Kornblatt director 1214 ROUND HILL ROAD, BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Leslie B Daniels director 540 MADISON, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
John S Bolton director GENESIS PARK HOLDINGS, 2000 EDWARDS STREET, SUITE B, HOUSTON TX 77007
Michael J Bevacqua director SANKATY ADVISORS, LLC, JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bain Capital Credit Member, Llc 10 percent owner 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bcc Redwire Aggregator, L.p. 10 percent owner 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Ae Industrial Partners Structured Solutions I Gp, Lp director, 10 percent owner 2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Ae Industrial Partners Structured Solutions I, Lp director, 10 percent owner 2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Michael Robert Greene 10 percent owner 2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Ae Red Holdings, Llc 10 percent owner 2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Andrew Rush officer: President and COO REDWIRE CORPORATION, 8226 PHILIPS HIGHWAY, SUITE 101, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256
Aeroequity Gp, Llc 10 percent owner 2500 N. MILITARY TRAIL, SUITE 470, BOCA RATON FL 33431

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