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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Fourth Milling Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Fourth Milling Co (SAU:2286) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Fourth Milling Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
SAU:2286 vs ADM, BG, TSN: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Farm Products subindustry, Fourth Milling Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Fourth Milling Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Consumer Packaged Goods Industry
For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Fourth Milling Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Fourth Milling Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Fourth Milling Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-8.81
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% mean?
Fourth Milling Co (SAU:2286) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% as of Jul. 16, 2026.
Is Fourth Milling Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Fourth Milling Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. Overall, Fourth Milling Co has a GF Score™ of 23/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Fourth Milling Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to ADM and BG?
Fourth Milling Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% can be compared against companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Consumer Packaged Goods company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Consumer Packaged Goods industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Fourth Milling Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Fourth Milling Co stock overvalued right now?
Fourth Milling Co (SAU:2286) has a current Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01%. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. Fourth Milling Co's overall GF Score™ is 23/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Fourth Milling Co (SAU:2286), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01% as of Jul. 16, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Fourth Milling Co licensed activities include the packing and milling of wheat, maize, barley, rice, flour, meal, bulgur wheat, oats, dried leguminous vegetables, edible nuts, and corn, as well as the production of flour from rice and the manufacture of starch from corn and potatoes. It also manufactures bakery products such as bread, cakes, biscuits, pies, breakfast cereals, popcorn, frozen bakery items, and traditional desserts. In addition, the Company produces animal feed, including cattle, poultry, birds, and pet feed, along with non-medicinal feed additives. The Company is also engaged in freight transport by road, storage and warehousing of grain, silos, flour, and agricultural products, as well as the wholesale and retail of grains, feed, bakery products, and food and beverages.
23GF Score
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