Progen Holdings (SGX:583) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.07% (As of Jul. 03, 2026)


What is Progen Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Progen Holdings SGX:583 +4.00% Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07% as of Jul. 03, 2026. The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Progen Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Progen Holdings  (SGX:583) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Progen Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

SGX:583 vs TT, JCI, CARR: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Building Products & Equipment subindustry, Progen Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Progen Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Construction Industry

For the Construction industry and Industrials sector, Progen Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Progen Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


Progen Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.23

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.07%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.07% mean?
Progen Holdings (SGX:583) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.07% as of Jul. 03, 2026.
Is Progen Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Progen Holdings' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%.
How does Progen Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to TT and JCI?
Progen Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.07% can be compared against companies in the Construction industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Construction company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Construction industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Progen Holdings's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Progen Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Progen Holdings (SGX:583) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is S$0.04, compared to a current price of S$0.03 — trading 35% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Progen Holdings (SGX:583), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07% as of Jul. 03, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Progen Holdings Business Description

Address 28 Riverside Road, No. 04-01 Progen Building, Singapore, SGP, 739085
Progen Holdings Ltd is a Singapore-based investment holding company. Along with its subsidiaries, it is principally engaged in the business of design, supply, installation, and maintenance of air conditioners, cooling, and mechanical ventilation systems. The group's reportable segments are Products and installation, Servicing and maintenance, Rental, Property development, and Others. Majority of its revenue is generated from the Products and installation segment, which relates to the contracting of engineering works, cooling towers, air-conditioning, and mechanical ventilation systems. Geographically, it operates substantially in Singapore.