What is Tredegar Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Tredegar's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.36%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Tredegar's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Metal Fabrication subindustry, Tredegar's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Tredegar's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Industrial Products Industry
For the Industrial Products industry and Industrials sector, Tredegar's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Tredegar's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Tredegar Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -5.64 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.36% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Tredegar (Tredegar) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1100 Boulders Parkway, Richmond, VA, USA, 23225
Tredegar Corp through its subsidiaries engaged in the manufacture of Polyethylene Plastic films, Polyester Films, and Aluminum Extrusions. Polyethylene Plastic films manufacture plastic films, elastics and laminate materials which are utilized in personal care materials, surface protection films, and specialty and optical lighting applications. It operates through PE Films, Flexible Packaging Films, and Aluminum Extrusions segments. Aluminum Extrusions produce high-quality, soft-alloy and medium-strength aluminum use for building and construction, automotive, consumer durables, machinery and equipment, electrical and distribution markets. It generates revenue from the United States, Asia, and Brazil.
Executives
| James T. Gottwald |
10 percent owner |
3600 RIVER ROAD WEST, GOOCHLAND VA 23063 |
| Kevin Cyril Donnelly |
officer: Vice President and Secretary |
1100 BOULDERS PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23225 |
| Anne G Waleski |
director |
1508 WEST AVENUE, RICHMOND VA 23220 |
| Michael Jay Schewel |
officer: Vice President and Secretary |
C/O MARKEL CORPORATION, 4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060 |
| Brickhouse Frasier W Ii |
other: Controller |
1100 BOULDERS PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23225 |
| Gamco Investors, Inc. Et Al |
10 percent owner |
191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| John M Steitz |
director |
ALBEMARLE CORP, 451 FLORIDA ST, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| William M Gottwald |
director |
ALBERMARLE CORP, PO BOX 2189, RICHMOND VA 23218 |
| Associated Capital Group, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| A Brent King |
officer: Vice President and Secretary |
4951 LAKE BROOK DR, STE 500, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060 |
| Mary Jane Hellyar |
officer: Vice President |
1100 BOULDERS PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23225 |
| Ggcp, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
189 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Mario J Gabelli |
10 percent owner |
191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Gottwald Floyd D Jr |
director |
330 SOUTH FOURTH STREET, RICHMOND VA 23219 |
| John D Gottwald |
director |
207 WOOD ROAD, TREDEGAR CORP, 1100 BOULDERS PARKWAY VA 23225 |
Tredegar (Tredegar) Headlines
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