TG (Tredegar) Predictability Rank

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What is Tredegar Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tredegar Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tredegar Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Tredegar Corp (NYSE:TG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

T70:Germany

Address

1100 Boulders Parkway, North Chesterfield, Richmond, VA, USA, 23225

Website

https://www.tredegar.com

Tredegar Corp, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture of polyethylene plastic films, polyester films, and aluminum extrusions. Polyethylene plastic films produce plastic films, elastics, and laminate materials that are used in personal care products, surface protection films, and specialty and optical lighting applications. The company operates through segments including PE films, flexible packaging films, and aluminum extrusions. Aluminum extrusions generate the majority of revenue and provide high-quality, soft-alloy, medium-strength aluminum utilized in the building and construction, automotive, consumer durables, machinery and equipment, electrical, and distribution markets. Revenue is generated from the United States, Asia, and Brazil.

Executives

Gamco Investors, Inc. Et Al	10 percent owner	191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
James T. Gottwald	10 percent owner	3600 RIVER ROAD WEST, GOOCHLAND VA 23063
Kevin Cyril Donnelly	officer: Vice President and Secretary	1100 BOULDERS PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23225
Anne G Waleski	director	1508 WEST AVENUE, RICHMOND VA 23220
Michael Jay Schewel	officer: Vice President and Secretary	C/O MARKEL CORPORATION, 4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Brickhouse Frasier W Ii	other: Controller	1100 BOULDERS PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23225
John M Steitz	director	ALBEMARLE CORP, 451 FLORIDA ST, BATON ROUGE LA 70801
William M Gottwald	director	ALBERMARLE CORP, PO BOX 2189, RICHMOND VA 23218
Associated Capital Group, Inc.	10 percent owner	191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
A Brent King	officer: Vice President and Secretary	4951 LAKE BROOK DR, STE 500, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Mary Jane Hellyar	officer: Vice President	1100 BOULDERS PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23225
Ggcp, Inc.	10 percent owner	189 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Mario J Gabelli	10 percent owner	191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Gottwald Floyd D Jr	director	330 SOUTH FOURTH STREET, RICHMOND VA 23219
John D Gottwald	director	207 WOOD ROAD, TREDEGAR CORP, 1100 BOULDERS PARKWAY VA 23225