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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Systena's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Systena (TSE:2317) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Systena Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
TSE:2317 vs IBM, ACN, FISV: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Information Technology Services subindustry, Systena's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Systena Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Software Industry
For the Software industry and Technology sector, Systena's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Systena's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Systena Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-8.68
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
Systena (TSE:2317) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Jul. 16, 2026.
Is Systena's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Systena's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, Systena has a GF Score™ of 91/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Systena's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to IBM and ACN?
Systena's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Software industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Software company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Software industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Systena's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Systena stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Systena (TSE:2317) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is 円449.11, compared to a current price of 円420.00 — trading 6.5% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Systena's overall GF Score™ is 91/100 with 1 warning sign to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Systena (TSE:2317), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jul. 16, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Systena (TSE:2317) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Systena stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of 円420.00 is trading 6.5% below its estimated GF Value™ of 円449.11.
GuruFocus considers Systena to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for TSE:2317:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
GF Value™: 円449.11 vs. price of 円420.00 (6.5% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:2317 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Systena Corp is a software application and services provider that offers a range of support for planning, designing, developing and operating online businesses for smart devices. It also operates a Framework Design Business, which develops backbone and peripheral systems for financial institutions and designs and builds application platforms. The company provides outsourcing services for help desk and systems operations; and develops and offers gaming content for smartphones. It also offers cloud services; and sells and supports the introduction of Google Apps for Business and Microsoft Office 365, public SaaS-based services, and cloud step.
91GF Score
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