Beat Holdings (TSE:9399) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 1.80% (As of Jun. 28, 2026)


TSE:9399 Beat Holdings Ltd TSE:9399
33 GF Score
Price 円10.00
GF Value 円1.77
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is Beat Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Beat Holdings TSE:9399 -9.09% 33 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.80% as of Jun. 28, 2026. GuruFocus rates TSE:9399 with a GF Score™ of 33/100 and a GF Value™ of 円1.77 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Beat Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.80%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Beat Holdings  (TSE:9399) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Beat Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


TSE:9399 vs CRM, SHOP, UBER: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Software - Application subindustry, Beat Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Beat Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Software Industry

For the Software industry and Technology sector, Beat Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Beat Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


TSE:9399
33GF Score
Beat Holdings Ltd TSE:9399
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Beat Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-4.00

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=1.80%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.80% mean?
Beat Holdings (TSE:9399) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.80% as of Jun. 28, 2026.
Is Beat Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Beat Holdings' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.80%. Overall, Beat Holdings has a GF Score™ of 33/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Beat Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to CRM and SHOP?
Beat Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.80% can be compared against companies in the Software industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Software company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Software industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Beat Holdings's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.80%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Beat Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Beat Holdings (TSE:9399) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is 円1.77, compared to a current price of 円10.00 — trading 465% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.80%. Beat Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 33/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Beat Holdings (TSE:9399), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.80% as of Jun. 28, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Beat Holdings (TSE:9399) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Beat Holdings stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of 円10.00 is trading 465% above its estimated GF Value™ of 円1.77. GuruFocus considers Beat Holdings to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:9399:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 1.80%
  • GF Value™: 円1.77 vs. price of 円10.00 (465% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 33/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:9399 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Beat Holdings Business Description

Address 199 Des Voeux Road Central, Suite 2103, Infinitus Plaza, Hong Kong, HKG, 200020
Beat Holdings Ltd is mainly engaged in the business of providing application-to-person (A2P) messaging service and software products and services. Its reportable segments are: the Messaging Business, which provides cloud-based A2P messaging services and software products and services; the Licensing Business, which provides licensing services for intellectual property rights and other rights related to application software owned by the group; and other businesses. The majority of its revenue is generated from the Messaging business. Geographically, the group generates maximum revenue from Asia, and the rest from Europe and other regions.
33GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:9399

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円10.00
Price
円1.77
GF Value