Hokuriku Gas Co (TSE:9537) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.00% (As of Jul. 15, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

TSE:9537 Hokuriku Gas Co Ltd TSE:9537
67 GF Score
Price 円4,280.00
GF Value 円3,701.52
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 3 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Hokuriku Gas Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Hokuriku Gas Co TSE:9537 -1.15% 67 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00% as of Jul. 15, 2026. GuruFocus rates TSE:9537 with a GF Score™ of 67/100 and a GF Value™ of 円3,701.52 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Hokuriku Gas Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Hokuriku Gas Co  (TSE:9537) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Hokuriku Gas Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


TSE:9537 vs ATO, NI, UGI: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Utilities - Regulated Gas subindustry, Hokuriku Gas Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Hokuriku Gas Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Utilities - Regulated Industry

For the Utilities - Regulated industry and Utilities sector, Hokuriku Gas Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Hokuriku Gas Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


TSE:9537
67GF Score
Hokuriku Gas Co Ltd TSE:9537
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Hokuriku Gas Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-9.99

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.00% mean?
Hokuriku Gas Co (TSE:9537) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.00% as of Jul. 15, 2026.
Is Hokuriku Gas Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Hokuriku Gas Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%. Overall, Hokuriku Gas Co has a GF Score™ of 67/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Hokuriku Gas Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to ATO and NI?
Hokuriku Gas Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.00% can be compared against companies in the Utilities - Regulated industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for an Utilities - Regulated company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Utilities - Regulated industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Hokuriku Gas Co's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Hokuriku Gas Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Hokuriku Gas Co (TSE:9537) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is 円3,701.52, compared to a current price of 円4,280.00 — trading 15.6% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%. Hokuriku Gas Co's overall GF Score™ is 67/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Hokuriku Gas Co (TSE:9537), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00% as of Jul. 15, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Hokuriku Gas Co (TSE:9537) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Hokuriku Gas Co stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of 円4,280.00 is trading 15.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of 円3,701.52. GuruFocus considers Hokuriku Gas Co to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:9537:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.00%
  • GF Value™: 円3,701.52 vs. price of 円4,280.00 (15.6% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 67/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:9537 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Hokuriku Gas Co Business Description

Address Hokuriku Building, 2-23 Higashi-Odori 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Niigata City, JPN, 950-8748
Hokuriku Gas Co Ltd engages in the manufacture, supply, and sale of city gas and gas-related equipment. It is involved in the manufacture, supply, and sale of city gas, as well as the operation of gas works and the sale of gas equipment. The firm also engages in the sale of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and LPG equipment, the operation of LPG piping works, gas works and civil engineering works, the design, installation, maintenance, security and inspection of gas equipment, the sale, installation and meter reading of housing facilities and equipment, the leasing and management of buildings, the leasing of business equipment and vehicles, It also undertakes gas construction contracts; and sells gas appliances.
67GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:9537

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円4,280.00
Price
円3,701.52
GF Value