Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Yum China Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Yum China Holdings (NYSE:YUMC) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Yum China Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
YUMC vs TXRH, DPZ, LKNCY: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Restaurants subindustry, Yum China Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Yum China Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Restaurants Industry
For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Yum China Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Yum China Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Yum China Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-8.24
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% mean?
Yum China Holdings (YUMC) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% as of Jun. 24, 2026.
Is Yum China Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Yum China Holdings' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Overall, Yum China Holdings has a GF Score™ of 81/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Yum China Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to TXRH and DPZ?
Yum China Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.03% can be compared against companies in the Restaurants industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Restaurants company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Restaurants industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yum China Holdings's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Yum China Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Yum China Holdings (YUMC) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $53.83, compared to a current price of $41.05 — trading 23.7% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%. Yum China Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 81/100. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Yum China Holdings (YUMC), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Yum China Holdings (YUMC) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Yum China Holdings stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $41.05 is trading 23.7% below its estimated GF Value™ of $53.83.
GuruFocus considers Yum China Holdings to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for YUMC:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.03%
GF Value™: $53.83 vs. price of $41.05 (23.7% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the YUMC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Yum China is the largest restaurant operator in China, with over 18,000 locations and USD 12 billion in systemwide sales as of 2025. It generates revenue primarily from its own restaurants and franchise fees. While KFC and Pizza Hut are its flagship brands, Yum China's portfolio also includes Little Sheep, Taco Bell, Huang Ji Huang, and Lavazza.As a trademark licensee of Yum Brands, Yum China pays 3% of KFC and Pizza Hut's systemwide sales to its former parent, from which it spun off in 2016. However, even before the separation, Yum China was granted substantial autonomy, giving its Chinese leadership decision-making authority over menu, supply chain, and marketing—an unusual practice for Western chains at the time.
81GF Score
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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