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Northrop Grumman Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 20.64% (As of Jun. 2022)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Northrop Grumman's forward rate of return for was 20.64%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Northrop Grumman's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

NOC' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 10.88   Med: 18.12   Max: 30.69
Current: 20.56

During the past 13 years, Northrop Grumman's highest Forward Rate of Return was 30.69. The lowest was 10.88. And the median was 18.12.

NOC's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than
91.28% of 172 companies
in the Aerospace & Defense industry
Industry Median: 2.91 vs NOC: 20.56

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Northrop Grumman Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for Northrop Grumman's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Northrop Grumman Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 12.85 20.11 19.15 16.50 21.33

Northrop Grumman Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 18.12 19.11 21.33 20.76 20.64

Competitive Comparison

For the Aerospace & Defense subindustry, Northrop Grumman's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Northrop Grumman Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Aerospace & Defense industry and Industrials sector, Northrop Grumman's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Northrop Grumman's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



Northrop Grumman Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Northrop Grumman's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2022 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=13.19485714/478.57+0.1788
=20.64 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Northrop Grumman  (NYSE:NOC) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


Northrop Grumman Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Northrop Grumman's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Northrop Grumman Business Description

Northrop Grumman logo
Address
2980 Fairview Park Drive, Falls Church, VA, USA, 22042
Northrop Grumman is a defense contractor that is diversified across short-cycle and long-cycle businesses. The firm's segments include aeronautics, mission systems, defense services, and space systems. The company's aerospace segment creates the fuselage for the massive F-35 program and produces various piloted and autonomous flight systems. Mission systems creates a variety of sensors and processors for defense hardware. The defense systems segment is a mix between a long-range missile manufacturer and a defense IT service provider. Finally, the company's space systems segment produces various space structures, sensors, and satellites.
Executives
Bromberg Matthew Fox officer: CVP, Global Operations 2980 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Wilson Thomas L Jr officer: CVP and Pres. Space Systems 2980 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Robinson Graham director 1000 STANLEY DRIVE NEW BRITAIN CT 06053
Jones Thomas H officer: CVP & Pres Aeronautics Systems 2980 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Abney David P director 55 GLENLAKE PARWAY, NE ATLANTA GA 30328
Brown Marianne Catherine director 4094 TIMUQUANA ROAD JACKSONVILLE FL 33210-8571
Keffer David F officer: CVP & Chief Financial Officer 3170 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Petryszyn Mary D officer: CVP, Pres, Defense Systems 2980 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Bush Wesley G director, officer: Chairman 333 MAPLE AVENUE EAST #3080 VIENNA VA 22180
Ryan Lucy C officer: Corp VP, Communications 2980 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Addison Ann M officer: Corporate Vice President 11951 FREEDOM DRIVE RESTON VA 20190
Larson Blake E officer: Vice President, other: Corp VP & Pres, NGIS 5050 LINCOLN DRIVE EDINA MN 55436
Kalan Lesley A officer: Corp VP, Government Relations 805 VASSAR ROAD ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Purvis Shawn N officer: CVP, President, Enterprise Svc 9672 CRECY LANE MANASSAS VA 20110
Pamiljans Janis G officer: Corp VP & President AS Systems 212 LANSING ISLAND DRIVE INDIAN HARBOUR BEACH FL 32937

Northrop Grumman Headlines

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