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Northrop GrummanNOC +1.00%84 Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $321.88 as of Sep. 03, 2026. GuruFocus rates NOC with a GF Score™ of 84/100 and a GF Value™ of $563.93 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 26 Aerospace & Defense companies, Northrop Grumman ranks better than 50% on this metric.
Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
Northrop Grumman Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms
Northrop Grumman Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data
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The historical data trend for Northrop Grumman's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
For the Aerospace & Defense subindustry, Northrop Grumman's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Northrop Grumman Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) vs Aerospace & Defense Industry
For the Aerospace & Defense industry and Industrials sector, Northrop Grumman's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Northrop Grumman's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.
Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.76%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 6.40%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
Northrop Grumman's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past
10 years was 6.40%,
which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 6.40%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $25.466. However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Northrop Grumman's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $321.88 mean?
Northrop Grumman (NOC) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $321.88 as of Sep. 03, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted free cash flow model. View historical data on Northrop Grumman and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Northrop Grumman ranks #13 out of 26 companies in the Aerospace & Defense industry, placing it in the top 50%.
Is Northrop Grumman's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) too high?
Northrop Grumman's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $321.88. The Aerospace & Defense industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 1.69. Northrop Grumman's value of $321.88 is 19002.7% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Northrop Grumman ranks #13 out of 26 companies in the Aerospace & Defense industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Northrop Grumman has a GF Score™ of 84/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Northrop Grumman's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) compare to TDG and GD?
According to the Aerospace & Defense industry distribution chart, Northrop Grumman ranks #13 out of 26 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based). This puts Northrop Grumman in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 1.69. Northrop Grumman's value of $321.88 is 19002.7% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for an Aerospace & Defense company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) among Aerospace & Defense companies is 1.69, based on 26 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Northrop Grumman's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $321.88 is 19002.7% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted free cash flow model. View historical data on Northrop Grumman and its competitors. For the Aerospace & Defense industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 1.69 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Northrop Grumman's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $321.88. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Northrop Grumman stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Northrop Grumman (NOC) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $563.93, compared to a current price of $529.04 — trading 6.2% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $321.88 and 19002.7% above the Aerospace & Defense industry median of 1.69. Northrop Grumman's overall GF Score™ is 84/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Northrop Grumman (NOC), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $321.88 as of Sep. 03, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Northrop Grumman (NOC) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Northrop Grumman stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $529.04 is trading 6.2% below its estimated GF Value™ of $563.93.
GuruFocus considers Northrop Grumman to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for NOC:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based): $321.88
GF Value™: $563.93 vs. price of $529.04 (6.2% below fair value)
Industry Position: 19002.7% above the Aerospace & Defense median (#13 of 26)
No single metric tells the full story. See the NOC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Northrop Grumman is a diversified defense contractor providing aeronautics, defense, and space systems. The company's aerospace segment produces autonomous and piloted aircraft such as Global Hawk drones and the new B-21 bomber, creates the fuselage for the massive F-35 program, and maintains and upgrades numerous other military aircraft. Defense systems makes artillery and missile ammunition and guidance systems, long-range missiles, and missile defense systems. Mission systems creates and integrates a variety of radar, navigation, and communication systems for avionics, weapons control, and countermeasures on a range of platforms from helicopters to destroyers. Space systems produces satellites, sensors, space structures, and rocket motors.
84GF Score
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Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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