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Harley-Davidson (LTS:0QYY) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share : $5.91 (As of Mar. 2025)


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What is Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson's adjusted free cash flow per share for the three months ended in Mar. 2025 was $0.894. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide the count will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is $5.91 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2025.

During the past 12 months, Harley-Davidson's average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 5.30% per year. During the past 3 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 3.90% per year. During the past 5 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 5.90% per year. During the past 10 years, the average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate was 10.90% per year. Please click Growth Rate Calculation Example (GuruFocus) to see how GuruFocus calculates Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT)'s revenue growth rate. You can apply the same method to get the Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate using Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share data.

During the past 13 years, the highest 3-Year average Cyclically Adjusted FCF Growth Rate of Harley-Davidson was 40.10% per year. The lowest was -2.30% per year. And the median was 11.40% per year.

As of today (2025-05-23), Harley-Davidson's current stock price is $24.66. Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2025 was $5.91. Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is 4.17.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Harley-Davidson was 25.77. The lowest was 3.47. And the median was 8.07.


Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Historical Data

The historical data trend for Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Chart

Harley-Davidson Annual Data
Trend Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 5.21 5.18 5.44 5.63 5.90

Harley-Davidson Quarterly Data
Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25
Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 5.64 5.79 5.91 5.90 5.91

Competitive Comparison of Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share

For the Recreational Vehicles subindustry, Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.


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Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share and the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years.

What is Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share? How do we calculate Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share?

Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the free cash flow per share from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the 2001 free cash flow per share data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent free cash flow in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent free cash flow in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart's free cash flow is $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 free cash flow in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent free cash flow per share of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by the count to get Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.

For example, Harley-Davidson's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2025 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare= Free Cash Flow per Share /CPI of Mar. 2025 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2025)
=0.894/134.9266*134.9266
=0.894

Current CPI (Mar. 2025) = 134.9266.

Harley-Davidson Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201506 1.880 100.684 2.519
201509 1.726 100.392 2.320
201512 -0.220 99.792 -0.297
201603 0.012 100.470 0.016
201606 1.912 101.688 2.537
201609 2.322 101.861 3.076
201612 0.862 101.863 1.142
201703 0.768 102.862 1.007
201706 2.403 103.349 3.137
201709 1.628 104.136 2.109
201712 -0.215 104.011 -0.279
201803 0.964 105.290 1.235
201806 3.011 106.317 3.821
201809 2.017 106.507 2.555
201812 -0.063 105.998 -0.080
201903 -0.016 107.251 -0.020
201906 2.607 108.070 3.255
201909 2.004 108.329 2.496
201912 -0.263 108.420 -0.327
202003 -0.270 108.902 -0.335
202006 3.817 108.767 4.735
202009 3.246 109.815 3.988
202012 0.026 109.897 0.032
202103 0.932 111.754 1.125
202106 2.984 114.631 3.512
202109 1.659 115.734 1.934
202112 -0.055 117.630 -0.063
202203 0.723 121.301 0.804
202206 0.527 125.017 0.569
202209 2.044 125.227 2.202
202212 -0.625 125.222 -0.673
202303 0.010 127.348 0.011
202306 2.212 128.729 2.319
202309 1.690 129.860 1.756
202312 -0.144 129.419 -0.150
202403 0.421 131.776 0.431
202406 3.222 132.554 3.280
202409 2.294 133.029 2.327
202412 0.606 133.157 0.614
202503 0.894 134.927 0.894

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.


Harley-Davidson  (LTS:0QYY) Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share may underestimate the company's free cash flow. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can seem to be too high even the actual Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow is low.

For the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, the free cash flow per share of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/FCF calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is also called CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=24.66/5.91
=4.17

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

During the past 13 years, the highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF of Harley-Davidson was 25.77. The lowest was 3.47. And the median was 8.07.


Be Aware

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real free cash flow value.


Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Harley-Davidson Business Description

Address
3700 West Juneau Avenue, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53208
Harley-Davidson is a leading global manufacturer of heavyweight motorcycles across the custom, cruising, and touring segments, as well as related merchandise, parts, and accessories. In recent years, the firm has expanded into the adventure touring market with its Pan America model and into electric with the LiveWire brand. Its captive finance arm, Harley-Davidson Financial Services, provides wholesale financing to dealers and retail financing and insurance brokerage services to customers. Harley captured around 37% of the heavyweight domestic market in 2024.

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