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Cheesecake Factory (Cheesecake Factory) Earnings Power Value (EPV) : $-37.13 (As of Mar24)


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What is Cheesecake Factory Earnings Power Value (EPV)?

As of Mar24, Cheesecake Factory's earnings power value is $-37.13. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Cheesecake Factory Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Cheesecake Factory's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Cheesecake Factory Earnings Power Value (EPV) Chart

Cheesecake Factory Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -10.63 -22.99 -27.64 -33.76 -36.37

Cheesecake Factory Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -33.75 -34.98 -36.70 -36.37 -37.13

Competitive Comparison of Cheesecake Factory's Earnings Power Value (EPV)

For the Restaurants subindustry, Cheesecake Factory's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Cheesecake Factory's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution in the Restaurants Industry

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Cheesecake Factory's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Cheesecake Factory's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Cheesecake Factory Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Cheesecake Factory's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 2,886
DDA 92
Operating Margin % 1.94
SGA * 25% 47
Tax Rate % 35.00
Maintenance Capex 84
Cash and Cash Equivalents 60
Short-Term Debt 147
Long-Term Debt 1,714
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 49

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 1.94%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $2,886 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 1.94%, Average Adjusted SGA = 47,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 2,886 * 1.94% +47 = $103.502284046 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 35.00%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $103.502284046 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 103.502284046 * ( 1 - 35.00% ) = $67.27596711848 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 92 * 0.5 * 35.00% = $16.034149056 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 67.27596711848 + 16.034149056 = $83.31011617448 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Cheesecake Factory's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $84 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Cheesecake Factory's current cash and cash equivalent = $60 Mil.
Cheesecake Factory's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 1,714 + 147 = $1861.207 Mil.
Cheesecake Factory's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 49 Mil.

Cheesecake Factory's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Mar24 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 83.31011617448 - 84)/ 9%+60-1861.207 )/49
=-37.13

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -37.129339759867-37.97 )/-37.129339759867
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Cheesecake Factory  (NAS:CAKE) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Cheesecake Factory Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cheesecake Factory's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Cheesecake Factory (Cheesecake Factory) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
26901 Malibu Hills Road, Calabasas Hills, CA, USA, 91301
Cheesecake Factory owns and operates restaurants in the United States and Canada under brands that include The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and a collection within the Fox Restaurants Concepts subsidiary. The company's international presence, in the Middle East and Mexico, is through licensing agreements with third parties. The company also has a bakery division that produces cheesecakes and other baked products for sale in its restaurants, international licensees, and third-party bakery customers. The company has four operating business segments: The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, North Italia, other FRC, and Flower Child. Majority of the company's revenue comes from The Cheesecake Factory restaurants segment.
Executives
Ashley W Hanscom officer: PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Adam S. Gordon director 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91301
Edie A Ames director C/O MORTONS RESTATURANT GROUP, INC., 325 LASALLE STREET, SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60610
David Bruce Pittaway director 150 E 58TH ST, STE 3700, NEW YORK NY 10155
Khanh Collins director 22825 QUEENSBRIDGE DRIVE, ASHBURN VA 20148
Matthew Eliot Clark officer: VP, Strategic Planning 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
David M Gordon officer: President C/O THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED, 26901 MALIBU HILLS DRIVE, CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Cheryl Slomann officer: Principal Accounting Officer 6450 VIA REAL, CURPINTERIA CA 93013
David Overton director, officer: Chairman and C.E.O.
Keith Carango officer: President (Subsidiary) 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301
Paul D. Ginsberg director C/O ROARK CAPITAL, 1180 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Rc Cake Holdings Llc 10 percent owner 1180 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Janice L. Meyer director 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91301
Laurence B Mindel director IL FORNAIO AMERICA CORP, 770 TAMAPAIS DR STE 400, CORTE MADERA CA 94925
Alexander L Cappello director C/O THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INC, 26901 MALIBU HILLS ROAD, CALABASAS HILLS CA 91301