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General Mills (General Mills) Earnings Power Value (EPV) : $34.52 (As of Feb24)


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What is General Mills Earnings Power Value (EPV)?

As of Feb24, General Mills's earnings power value is $34.52. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -100.12

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


General Mills Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for General Mills's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

General Mills Earnings Power Value (EPV) Chart

General Mills Annual Data
Trend May14 May15 May16 May17 May18 May19 May20 May21 May22 May23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 16.47 23.09 28.45 32.78 32.36

General Mills Quarterly Data
May19 Aug19 Nov19 Feb20 May20 Aug20 Nov20 Feb21 May21 Aug21 Nov21 Feb22 May22 Aug22 Nov22 Feb23 May23 Aug23 Nov23 Feb24
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 32.74 32.36 32.82 33.42 34.52

Competitive Comparison of General Mills's Earnings Power Value (EPV)

For the Packaged Foods subindustry, General Mills's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


General Mills's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, General Mills's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where General Mills's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



General Mills Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

General Mills's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 18,829
DDA 576
Operating Margin % 17.17
SGA * 25% 804
Tax Rate % 18.97
Maintenance Capex 472
Cash and Cash Equivalents 589
Short-Term Debt 1,499
Long-Term Debt 11,015
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 573

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 17.17%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $18,829 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 17.17%, Average Adjusted SGA = 804,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 18,829 * 17.17% +804 = $4036.143448 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 18.97%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $4036.143448 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 4036.143448 * ( 1 - 18.97% ) = $3270.4063130454 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 576 * 0.5 * 18.97% = $54.6507432 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 3270.4063130454 + 54.6507432 = $3325.0570562454 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
General Mills's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $472 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. General Mills's current cash and cash equivalent = $589 Mil.
General Mills's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 11,015 + 1,499 = $12514 Mil.
General Mills's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 573 Mil.

General Mills's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Feb24 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 3325.0570562454 - 472)/ 9%+589-12514 )/573
=34.52

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 34.523903170497-69.09 )/34.523903170497
= -100.12%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


General Mills  (NYSE:GIS) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


General Mills Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

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General Mills (General Mills) Business Description

Address
Number One General Mills Boulevard, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55426
General Mills is a global packaged food company that produces snacks, cereal, convenient meals, yogurt, dough, baking mixes and ingredients, pet food, and superpremium ice cream. Its largest brands are Nature Valley, Cheerios, Old El Paso, Yoplait, Pillsbury, Betty Crocker, Blue Buffalo, and Haagen-Dazs. In fiscal 2023, 81% of its revenue was derived from the United States, although the company also operates in Canada, Europe, Australia, Asia, and Latin America. While most of General Mills' products are sold through retail stores to consumers, the company also sells products to the foodservice channel and the commercial baking industry.
Executives
Werner Lanette Shaffer officer: Chief Innovation Officer ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD., MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
David Cordani director THE CIGNA GROUP, 900 COTTAGE GROVE ROAD, BLOOMFIELD CT 06002
Mark A Pallot officer: Chief Accounting Officer NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Jodi J Benson officer: Chief Innovation Officer GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Jacqueline Williams-roll officer: Senior Vice President GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Bethany C. Quam officer: Group President GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD., MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Jonathon Nudi officer: Senior Vice President GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Sean N Walker officer: Group President NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Shawn P Ogrady officer: SVP, Pres, Consumer Food Sales ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Jeffrey L Harmening officer: Executive Vice President ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Dana M Mcnabb officer: Group President NUMBER ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
C Kim Goodwin director C/O AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 8 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Karen Wilson Thissen officer: General Counsel & Secretary 1098 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474
John R Church officer: SVP, Supply Chain ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Richard C Allendorf officer: Senior Vice President GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD., MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426