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Avalon HoldingsAWX +0.57%71 Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $3.61 as of Sep. 08, 2026. GuruFocus rates AWX with a GF Score™ of 71/100 and a GF Value™ of $2.61 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 31 Waste Management companies, Avalon Holdings ranks better than 64.52% on this metric.
Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
The historical rank and industry rank for Avalon Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
AWX'
s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.38 Med: 1.51 Max: 2.65
Current: 0.72
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Avalon Holdings was 2.65. The lowest was 0.38. And the median was 1.51.
AWX's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked better than 64.52% of 31
companies
in the Waste Management industry
Industry Median: 0.95
vs AWX: 0.72
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
Avalon Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms
Avalon Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Avalon Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
For the Waste Management subindustry, Avalon Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Avalon Holdings Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) vs Waste Management Industry
For the Waste Management industry and Industrials sector, Avalon Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Avalon Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.80%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
Avalon Holdings's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past
3 years was 0.00%,
which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $0.313. GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Avalon Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $3.61 mean?
Avalon Holdings (AWX) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $3.61 as of Sep. 08, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on Avalon Holdings and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Avalon Holdings ranks #11 out of 31 companies in the Waste Management industry, placing it in the top 35.5%.
Is Avalon Holdings' Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) too high?
Avalon Holdings' current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $3.61. The Waste Management industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.95. Avalon Holdings' value of $3.61 is 280% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Avalon Holdings ranks #11 out of 31 companies in the Waste Management industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Avalon Holdings has a GF Score™ of 71/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Avalon Holdings' Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) compare to AQMS and OCLN?
According to the Waste Management industry distribution chart, Avalon Holdings ranks #11 out of 31 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based). This puts Avalon Holdings in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.95. Avalon Holdings' value of $3.61 is 280% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for a Waste Management company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) among Waste Management companies is 0.95, based on 31 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Avalon Holdings's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $3.61 is 280% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on Avalon Holdings and its competitors. For the Waste Management industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.95 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Avalon Holdings's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $3.61. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Avalon Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Avalon Holdings (AWX) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $2.61, compared to a current price of $2.61 — trading right at its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $3.61 and 280% above the Waste Management industry median of 0.95. Avalon Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 71/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Avalon Holdings (AWX), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $3.61 as of Sep. 08, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Avalon Holdings (AWX) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Avalon Holdings stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $2.61 is trading 0% below its estimated GF Value™ of $2.61.
GuruFocus considers Avalon Holdings to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for AWX:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based): $3.61
GF Value™: $2.61 vs. price of $2.61 (0% below fair value)
Industry Position: 280% above the Waste Management median (#11 of 31)
No single metric tells the full story. See the AWX stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Avalon Holdings Corp is a waste management company. The company provides waste management services to industrial, commercial, municipal, and governmental customers in selected northeastern and midwestern U.S. markets. The company has two operating segments. The Waste management services segment, which is the key revenue driver, provides hazardous and non-hazardous brokerage and management services to industrial, commercial, municipal, and governmental customers, captive landfill management for an industrial customer, and saltwater injection well operations. Its Golf and related operations segment consists of four golf courses and associated clubhouses, which provide dining and banquet facilities, a hotel which provides lodging and resort-related amenities.
71GF Score
Get the complete analysis for AWX
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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