AWX (Avalon Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Avalon Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Avalon Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Avalon Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Waste Management » Avalon Holdings Corp (AMEX:AWX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One American Way, Warren, OH, USA, 44484-5555

Website

https://www.avalonholdings.com

Avalon Holdings Corp is a waste management company. The company provides waste management services to industrial, commercial, municipal, and governmental customers in selected northeastern and midwestern U.S. markets. The company has two operating segments. The Waste management services segment which is the key revenue driver, includes waste disposal services, captive landfill operations, and saltwater injection well operations. Its Golf and related operations segment includes management of golf courses and related clubhouses, a hotel, fitness centers, tennis courts, salon and spa services, dining, banquet, and conference facilities.

Executives

Bryan Saksa	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	ONE AMERICAN WAY, WARREN OH 44484
Christine Bell	officer: President	ONE AMERICAN WAY, WARREN OH 44484
Stephen L Gordon	director	41 WOODLAND PARK DRIVE, TENAFLY NJ 07670
Kenneth J Mcmahon	officer: See Remarks	ONE AMERICAN WAY, WARREN OH 44484
Kurtis Dean Gramley	director	1001 HIGHLAND ROAD, SHARON PA 16146
Mintbroker International, Ltd.	10 percent owner	ELIZABETH AVE. & BAY STREET, NASSAU C5 N-8340
David G Bozanich	director	7842 WALNUT STREET, YOUNGSTOWN OH 44512
Timothy C Coxson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ONE AMERICAN WAY, WARREN OH 44484 5555
Robert Michael Arnoni	director	3757 LIBRARY ROAD, SUITE 250, PITTSBURGH PA 15234
Advisory Research Inc	10 percent owner	180 N. STETSON AVENUE, SUITE 5500, CHICAGO IL 60601
Advisory Research Microcap Value Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	180 NORTH STETSON AVENUE, SUITE 5500, CHICAGO IL 60601
Lourde John Constable	10 percent owner	5 RADNOR CORP CENTER, 100 MATSONFORD ROAD SUITE 520, RADNOR PA 19087
Nalluri Anil Choudary Inc P/s Plan & Trust U/a/dtd 7/1/80	10 percent owner	5500 MARKET ST #128, C/O ANIL C NALLURI MD INC, YOUNGSTOWN OH 44512
Thomas C Kniss	director	ONE AMERICAN WAY, WARREN OH 44484