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CF Industries HoldingsCF -0.06%69 Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $332.19 as of Aug. 04, 2026, which is 75398% above its 10-year median of 0.44. GuruFocus rates CF with a GF Score™ of 69/100 and a GF Value™ of $117.88 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 1 warning sign investors should review. Among 35 Agriculture companies, CF Industries Holdings ranks better than 94.29% on this metric.
Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
The historical rank and industry rank for CF Industries Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
CF'
s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.26 Med: 0.44 Max: 0.6
Current: 0.36
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of CF Industries Holdings was 0.60. The lowest was 0.26. And the median was 0.44.
CF's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked better than 94.29% of 35
companies
in the Agriculture industry
Industry Median: 1
vs CF: 0.36
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
CF Industries Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms
CF Industries Holdings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for CF Industries Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
For the Agricultural Inputs subindustry, CF Industries Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
CF Industries Holdings Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) vs Agriculture Industry
For the Agriculture industry and Basic Materials sector, CF Industries Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where CF Industries Holdings's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.63%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
CF Industries Holdings's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past
5 years was 28.70%,
which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $10.630. GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
CF Industries Holdings's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $332.19 mean?
CF Industries Holdings (CF) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $332.19 as of Aug. 04, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on CF Industries Holdings and its competitors. This is 75398% above median its historical median of 0.44. Over the past decade, CF Industries Holdings' Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) has ranged from 0.26 to 0.60. According to the industry distribution chart, CF Industries Holdings ranks #2 out of 35 companies in the Agriculture industry, placing it in the top 5.7%.
Is CF Industries Holdings' Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) too high?
CF Industries Holdings' current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $332.19 is 75398% above median its 10-year median of 0.44. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.26 to a high of 0.60. The Agriculture industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 1.00. CF Industries Holdings' value of $332.19 is 33119% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, CF Industries Holdings ranks #2 out of 35 companies in the Agriculture industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, CF Industries Holdings has a GF Score™ of 69/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does CF Industries Holdings' Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) compare to MOS and SMG?
According to the Agriculture industry distribution chart, CF Industries Holdings ranks #2 out of 35 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based). This places CF Industries Holdings in the top 6% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 1.00. CF Industries Holdings' value of $332.19 is 33119% above this benchmark. Historically, CF Industries Holdings' own Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) has ranged from 0.26 to 0.60 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 0.44 vs. the industry median of 1.00, CF Industries Holdings has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for an Agriculture company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) among Agriculture companies is 1.00, based on 35 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. CF Industries Holdings's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $332.19 is 33119% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on CF Industries Holdings and its competitors. For the Agriculture industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 1.00 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. CF Industries Holdings's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $332.19, which is 75398% above median its own 10-year median of 0.44. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is CF Industries Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, CF Industries Holdings (CF) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $117.88, compared to a current price of $118.23 — trading 0.3% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $332.19, which is 75398% above median its 10-year median of 0.44 and 33119% above the Agriculture industry median of 1.00. CF Industries Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 69/100 with 1 warning sign to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For CF Industries Holdings (CF), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $332.19 as of Aug. 04, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is CF Industries Holdings (CF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, CF Industries Holdings stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $118.23 is trading 0.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of $117.88.
GuruFocus considers CF Industries Holdings to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for CF:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based): $332.19 (75398% above median its 10-year median of 0.44)
GF Value™: $117.88 vs. price of $118.23 (0.3% above fair value)
Industry Position: 33119% above the Agriculture median (#2 of 35)
No single metric tells the full story. See the CF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
CF Industries is a leading producer and distributor of nitrogen, which is primarily used in fertilizers. The company operates nitrogen manufacturing plants primarily in North America. CF also produces nitrogen in the United Kingdom and holds a joint venture interest in a nitrogen production facility in Trinidad and Tobago. CF makes nitrogen primarily using low-cost US natural gas as its feedstock, making the company one of the lowest-cost nitrogen producers globally. It is also investing in carbon-free blue and green ammonia, which can be used as an alternative fuel to hydrogen or as a means to transport hydrogen.
69GF Score
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Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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