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Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
The historical rank and industry rank for San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
SMGLF's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked *
in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry.
Industry Median: 0.77 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.
San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong (OTCPK:SMGLF) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms
San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart
SMGLF vs STZ: Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Comparison
For the Beverages - Brewers subindustry, San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) vs Beverages - Alcoholic Industry
For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.
San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.71%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past
5 years was 39.80%,
which is no less than 20%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 20%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $0.009. GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $0.28 mean?
San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong (SMGLF) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $0.28 as of Aug. 24, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong ranks #999999 out of 30 companies in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry.
Is San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) too high?
San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $0.28. The Beverages - Alcoholic industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.77. San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's value of $0.28 is 63.6% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong ranks #999999 out of 30 companies in the Beverages - Alcoholic industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong has a GF Score™ of 51/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) compare to STZ?
According to the Beverages - Alcoholic industry distribution chart, San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong ranks #999999 out of 30 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based). This places San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.77. San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's value of $0.28 is 63.6% below this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for a Beverages - Alcoholic company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) among Beverages - Alcoholic companies is 0.77, based on 30 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $0.28 is 63.6% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong and its competitors. For the Beverages - Alcoholic industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.77 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $0.28. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong stock overvalued right now?
San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong (SMGLF) has a current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of $0.28. The stock's GF Value™ is $0.14, compared to a current price of $0.17 — trading 21.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $0.28 and 63.6% below the Beverages - Alcoholic industry median of 0.77. San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong's overall GF Score™ is 51/100 with 1 warning sign to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong (SMGLF), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is $0.28 as of Aug. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong (SMGLF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $0.17 is trading 21.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of $0.14.
Key valuation signals for SMGLF:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based): $0.28
GF Value™: $0.14 vs. price of $0.17 (21.4% above fair value)
Industry Position: 63.6% below the Beverages - Alcoholic median (#999999 of 30)
No single metric tells the full story. See the SMGLF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Ltd is engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of bottled, canned, and draught beers. Its two reportable segments are: The Hong Kong operations comprise the manufacture and distribution of own brewed beer products and the distribution of imported beer products in Hong Kong and overseas; and The Mainland China operations comprise the manufacture and distribution of own-brewed beer products in the southern part of the People's Republic of China and overseas. It derives the majority of its revenue from Hong Kong.
51GF Score
Get the complete analysis for SMGLF
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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