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Kelsian GroupASX:KLS -0.23%93 Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is A$4.17 as of Aug. 01, 2026, which is 100% below its 10-year median of 2.23. GuruFocus rates ASX:KLS with a GF Score™ of 93/100 and a GF Value™ of A$6.03 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 129 Transportation companies, Kelsian Group ranks worse than 55.04% on this metric.
Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
Kelsian Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms
Kelsian Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Kelsian Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Kelsian Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart
For the Railroads subindustry, Kelsian Group's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Kelsian Group Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) vs Transportation Industry
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Kelsian Group's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Kelsian Group's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.
Kelsian Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.
Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.83%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
Kelsian Group's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past
3 years was -29.90%,
which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = A$0.361. However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Kelsian Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of A$4.17 mean?
Kelsian Group (ASX:KLS) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of A$4.17 as of Aug. 01, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted free cash flow model. View historical data on Kelsian Group and its competitors. This is 87% above median its historical median of 2.23. Over the past decade, Kelsian Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) has ranged from 1.02 to 2.23. According to the industry distribution chart, Kelsian Group ranks #71 out of 129 companies in the Transportation industry, placing it in the top 55%.
Is Kelsian Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) too high?
Kelsian Group's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of A$4.17 is 87% above median its 10-year median of 2.23. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 1.02 to a high of 2.23. Based on the distribution chart, Kelsian Group ranks #71 out of 129 companies in the Transportation industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Kelsian Group has a GF Score™ of 93/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Kelsian Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) compare to UNP and CSX?
According to the Transportation industry distribution chart, Kelsian Group ranks #71 out of 129 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based). This places Kelsian Group in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 0.98. Historically, Kelsian Group's own Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) has ranged from 1.02 to 2.23 over the past decade. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for a Transportation company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) among Transportation companies is 0.98, based on 129 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted free cash flow model. View historical data on Kelsian Group and its competitors. For the Transportation industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 0.98 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Kelsian Group's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is A$4.17, which is 87% above median its own 10-year median of 2.23. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Kelsian Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Kelsian Group (ASX:KLS) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$6.03, compared to a current price of A$4.43 — trading 26.5% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is A$4.17, which is 87% above median its 10-year median of 2.23. Kelsian Group's overall GF Score™ is 93/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Kelsian Group (ASX:KLS), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is A$4.17 as of Aug. 01, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Kelsian Group (ASX:KLS) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Kelsian Group stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of A$4.43 is trading 26.5% below its estimated GF Value™ of A$6.03.
GuruFocus considers Kelsian Group to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for ASX:KLS:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based): A$4.17 (87% above median its 10-year median of 2.23)
GF Value™: A$6.03 vs. price of A$4.43 (26.5% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:KLS stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Kelsian operates public transport bus services throughout Australia, Singapore, and the UK on behalf of state governments. In the private sector, the group provides commuter transport services to resource companies, corporates, and education providers in Australia and the United States. Kelsian also provides marine transportation and a variety of tourism-related services throughout Australia, including ferry services, leisure cruises, accommodation, bus tours, and packaged holidays. In February 2026, Kelsian announced it had entered into an agreement to divest the leisure-centric tourism assets.
93GF Score
Get the complete analysis for ASX:KLS
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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