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Exxon Mobil (Exxon Mobil) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $92.20 (As of Jun. 15, 2024)


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What is Exxon Mobil Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-06-15), Exxon Mobil's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $92.20.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Exxon Mobil's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Exxon Mobil is -18.34%.

The industry rank for Exxon Mobil's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

XOM's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Oil & Gas industry.
Industry Median: 0.67
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Exxon Mobil Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Exxon Mobil's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Exxon Mobil Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Exxon Mobil Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
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Exxon Mobil Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Exxon Mobil's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Oil & Gas Integrated subindustry, Exxon Mobil's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Exxon Mobil's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Exxon Mobil's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Exxon Mobil's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



Exxon Mobil Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.22%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Exxon Mobil's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $7.989.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Exxon Mobil's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=7.989*11.5406
=92.20

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(92.2-109.11)/92.2
=-18.34 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Exxon Mobil  (NYSE:XOM) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Exxon Mobil Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Exxon Mobil's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Exxon Mobil (Exxon Mobil) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
Address
5959 Las Colinas Boulevard, Irving, TX, USA, 75039-2298
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil around the world. In 2022, it produced 2.4 million barrels of liquids and 8.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2022, reserves were 17.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 65% of which were liquids. The company is the world's largest refiner with a total global refining capacity of 4.6 million barrels of oil per day and is one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Executives
Jeffrey W Ubben director 1170 GORGAS AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Darrin L Talley officer: Vice President 22777 SPRINGWOODS VILLAGE PKWY, C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION, SPRING TX 77389
John D Harris director C/O FLEXTRONICS INTERNATIONAL USA, INC., 6201 AMERICA CENTER DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Lawrence W Kellner director 1600 SMITH ST., HQSEO, HOUSTON TX 77002
Leonard M. Fox officer: Vice President and Controller 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD, C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION, IRVING TX 75039-2298
James R. Chapman officer: VP, Tax and Treasurer 120 TREDEGAR STREET, RICHMOND VA 23219
Stephen A Littleton officer: Vice President and Secretary 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD, IRVING TX 75039-2298
Wojnar Theodore J Jr officer: Executive Officer 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD, IRVING TX 75039-2298
Spellings James M Jr officer: Vice Pres. & Gen. Tax Counsel C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION, 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD, IRVING TX 75039-2298
Linda D Ducharme officer: Executive Officer 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD, IRVING TX 75039-2298
Darren W Woods officer: Vice President C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION, 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD, IRVING TX 75039-2298
Michael J Angelakis director 40 MORRIS AVENUE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Kathryn A Mikells officer: Senior Vice President 77 W. WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60601
Alexander Karsner director C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC., 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039, SANTA CLARA CA 95052-8039
Kaisa Hietala director 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD, C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION, 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD TX 75039-2298

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