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Exxon Mobil (Exxon Mobil) Earnings Power Value (EPV) : $0.83 (As of Mar24)


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What is Exxon Mobil Earnings Power Value (EPV)?

As of Mar24, Exxon Mobil's earnings power value is $0.83. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -13168.86

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Exxon Mobil Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Exxon Mobil's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Exxon Mobil Earnings Power Value (EPV) Chart

Exxon Mobil Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -18.31 -51.73 -31.14 -12.20 -3.46

Exxon Mobil Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -9.26 -8.26 -4.44 -3.46 0.83

Competitive Comparison of Exxon Mobil's Earnings Power Value (EPV)

For the Oil & Gas Integrated subindustry, Exxon Mobil's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Exxon Mobil's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Exxon Mobil's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Exxon Mobil's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Exxon Mobil Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Exxon Mobil's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 292,597
DDA 26,107
Operating Margin % 5.25
SGA * 25% 2,748
Tax Rate % 9.19
Maintenance Capex 16,700
Cash and Cash Equivalents 33,320
Short-Term Debt 8,227
Long-Term Debt 32,213
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 3,998

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 5.25%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $292,597 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 5.25%, Average Adjusted SGA = 2,748,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 292,597 * 5.25% +2,748 = $18105.264042 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 9.19%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $18105.264042 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 18105.264042 * ( 1 - 9.19% ) = $16440.847118619 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 26,107 * 0.5 * 9.19% = $1200.017448 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 16440.847118619 + 1200.017448 = $17640.864566619 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Exxon Mobil's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $16,700 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Exxon Mobil's current cash and cash equivalent = $33,320 Mil.
Exxon Mobil's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 32,213 + 8,227 = $40440 Mil.
Exxon Mobil's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 3,998 Mil.

Exxon Mobil's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Mar24 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 17640.864566619 - 16,700)/ 9%+33,320-40440 )/3,998
=0.83

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 0.83473644216257-110.76 )/0.83473644216257
= -13168.86%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Exxon Mobil  (NYSE:XOM) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Exxon Mobil Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Exxon Mobil's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Exxon Mobil (Exxon Mobil) Business Description

Industry
Address
5959 Las Colinas Boulevard, Irving, TX, USA, 75039-2298
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil around the world. In 2022, it produced 2.4 million barrels of liquids and 8.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2022, reserves were 17.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 65% of which were liquids. The company is the world's largest refiner with a total global refining capacity of 4.6 million barrels of oil per day and is one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Executives
Jeffrey W Ubben director 1170 GORGAS AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Darrin L Talley officer: Vice President 22777 SPRINGWOODS VILLAGE PKWY, C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION, SPRING TX 77389
John D Harris director C/O FLEXTRONICS INTERNATIONAL USA, INC., 6201 AMERICA CENTER DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95002
Lawrence W Kellner director 1600 SMITH ST., HQSEO, HOUSTON TX 77002
Leonard M. Fox officer: Vice President and Controller 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD, C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION, IRVING TX 75039-2298
James R. Chapman officer: VP, Tax and Treasurer 120 TREDEGAR STREET, RICHMOND VA 23219
Stephen A Littleton officer: Vice President and Secretary 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD, IRVING TX 75039-2298
Wojnar Theodore J Jr officer: Executive Officer 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD, IRVING TX 75039-2298
Spellings James M Jr officer: Vice Pres. & Gen. Tax Counsel C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION, 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD, IRVING TX 75039-2298
Linda D Ducharme officer: Executive Officer 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD, IRVING TX 75039-2298
Darren W Woods officer: Vice President C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION, 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD, IRVING TX 75039-2298
Michael J Angelakis director 40 MORRIS AVENUE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Kathryn A Mikells officer: Senior Vice President 77 W. WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60601
Alexander Karsner director C/O APPLIED MATERIALS, INC., 3050 BOWERS AVENUE, P.O. BOX 58039, SANTA CLARA CA 95052-8039
Kaisa Hietala director 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD, C/O EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION, 5959 LAS COLINAS BOULEVARD TX 75039-2298

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